Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) Contradictory messages from the Ifo – which was very weak in May – and the Composite PMI mean the performance of the German economy in Q2 is uncertain. But regardless of how well the economy held up... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Yield rises show no sign of easing In contrast to the rest of Europe, CEE yields not only rose, but increased more sharply in Q1 than the previous quarter. Strong rental growth cushioned the blow to all-property capital values, but... 24th May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) The Bank of England won’t be able to ignore the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April and the rebound in core inflation to a new 31-year high. We now think it will raise interest rates... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” may not keep long-dated E-Z yields high The “higher for longer” story seems more plausible to us in the euro-zone than in the US, but we don’t think it will stop long-dated government bond yields from eventually falling there. 23rd May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (May 2023) May’s PMIs suggest that economic growth is being supported by the services sector while manufacturing activity continues to contract. The strength in services activity may be supporting persistent... 23rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Resilient services sector keeping growth and price pressures strong The euro-zone Composite PMI fell slightly in May but is still consistent at face value with the economy expanding at a rapid pace in Q2. The survey also suggests that price pressures and the labour... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Public finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures got the new fiscal year off to a shaky start. But we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from embarking on a fiscal splurge ahead of the next general election, due... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak external demand to weigh on exports National GDP data released so far suggest that euro-zone exports rose in Q1. However we suspect they will be more subdued in the coming quarters as a result of weak global growth. 22nd May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Labour activity and costs appear to be turning More convincing evidence of a loosening in the labour market and an easing in labour costs growth has started to emerge. It may not prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rate above 4.50%... 22nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly It’s Erdogan’s show, Poland’s giveaways, GDP wrap-up Sunday's presidential election result in Turkey has left Erdogan in pole position to win in the second round run-off on 28th May. If Erdogan does win, all eyes will focus on Turkey’s imbalances and... 19th May 2023 · 9 mins read
