UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The impact of the surge in mortgage rates following the “mini” budget on 23rd September was realised in November as mortgage approvals collapsed. The modest drop back in fixed mortgage rates since... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) December’s final PMIs suggest the euro-zone economy held up better than we expected in Q4, but are still consistent with a mild recession. They also suggest price pressures remain very high. 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Central London leads housing market slowdown London house prices are likely to continue to underperform even if the shift in buyer demand away from the capital due to remote working ends. More stretched house prices in the capital prior to the... 3rd January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (December) The sharp fall in German inflation in December was due to one-off energy subsidies so it will probably reverse in January. Headline inflation is still likely to decline rapidly in March, but we think... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Dec.) The slowdown in house price falls in December is little comfort when leading indicators point to further sharp declines. Despite mortgage rates edging lower in recent weeks, we continue to think that... 30th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Households increase savings despite falling real incomes The economy contracted by more than we previously thought in Q3 2022. But the most surprising thing we learnt was that the saving rate leapt from 6.7% in Q2 to 9.0% in Q3 as households on aggregate... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gas price ceiling, new year forecasts The ceiling on gas prices agreed in principle by the EU this week is unlikely to have any practical impact. The big picture is that gas prices look set to remain very high next year. The key release... 22nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss money supply, Swedish surveys The recent jump in money growth in Switzerland doesn't change our view that the SNB will raise interest rates only once more, to a peak of 1.25%, which would be lower than is priced into markets... 22nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper lira correction risks stuffing Turkey rent gains Although prime property in Turkey saw strong rental gains in 2022, a slowing economy looks set to weigh on occupier demand and cause rent growth to decelerate next year. Meanwhile, the risk of a... 22nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rise in gilt yields and sterling won’t last Even though we expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates further from 3.50% now to a peak of 4.50%, we doubt the recent increase in gilt yields will be sustained. Instead, we think yields may... 21st December 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tech layoffs add to broader office demand concerns The impending recession will hit jobs growth across the office-based sector. But the impact on office demand is likely to be greatest in markets that have a large exposure to the tech sector. This... 21st December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is rising fast. And with most of the costs from the government’s energy price support in 2022/23 still to feed through, that implies... 21st December 2022 · 4 mins read
