UK Data Response GDP (Nov.) The small 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in November (consensus -0.2% m/m, CE -0.3% m/m) suggests the economy did not contract in Q4 and is not in recession. Even so, it is too soon to conclude the economy... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed the first contraction in workloads since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2020. Weakening demand and rising financing costs are cutting profits and... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB tightening starting to take effect November’s money and credit data showed that the effects of tighter ECB policy were only just starting to be felt. So while some of the recent economic data have been a bit stronger than expected, the... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher interest costs pose downside risks to values Real estate equity prices pointed to around a 10% fall in euro-zone all-property capital values in 2022 and we expect a similar size fall this year. But while the latest REIT data show landlords were... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update French pension reform could be agreed despite strikes Reform of the French pension system is notoriously difficult and it is possible that the proposals unveiled yesterday will be watered down or even withdrawn completely. However, on balance, we think... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Worst case scenarios avoided, but outlook still poor There has been a further slight improvement in prospects for the euro-zone in recent weeks. Business surveys suggest that activity is no longer contracting sharply, headline inflation seems to be past... 10th January 2023 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property faces a tough year After a stellar first six months, rising interest rates and a slowing economy brought commercial property returns crashing down in the second half of 2022. All-property total returns are therefore set... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Shift to a bigger state won’t curtail GDP growth While the shift towards higher taxes and spending after the pandemic appears to be here to stay, there is little to suggest an expanded state would curtail GDP growth. But without supply-side reforms... 10th January 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus What would a Labour government mean for the economy? Labour’s big lead in the polls raises the question of what difference a Labour government would make to the economic outlook. The answer is probably not much. A tight grip on the public finances is... 9th January 2023 · 26 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Nov.) and Sentix Survey (Jan.) The stability of the euro-zone unemployment rate in November, at a record low of 6.5%, shows that the labour market held up even better than we expected at the end of last year. And the third... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2023 will see a difficult adjustment to higher rates Mortgage rates have probably now peaked, but they remain at a level that makes further steep falls in house prices and a slump in housing market activity inevitable this year. If anything, the hard... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) The rise in German industrial output in November confirms that industrial output held up better than we had expected in Q4. However, while the recent slump in gas prices should help energy-intensive... 9th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK’s business investment position will get even worse UK investment is already languishing well below that of its G7 counterparts and we suspect its investment and productivity position will worsen relative to its peers by the end of 2024. This raises... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
