UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jan.) While January’s money and credit figures suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to act as a drag on the housing market, they appear to be having less influence in other areas of the economy... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Net lending to property was once again positive in January, even as commercial property investment collapsed in the final quarter of last year. Investors may be preparing to re-enter the market and... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) The spike in mortgage rates in October and November last year ensured that mortgage approvals remained at a similar level to the depths of the 2007-09 financial crisis in January. That could mark the... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The manufacturing PMIs for February suggest that industrial sectors in Central and Eastern Europe are continuing to struggle, but there are tentative signs that the region may now be past the worst of... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) The further fall in house prices in February will keep optimism based on reports that demand has recovered in check. Indeed, even if buyer volumes have recovered, the amount they can spend on a new... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Rise in euro-zone bond yields may be overdone We think the recent rise in euro-zone government bond yields will reverse course over the rest of 2023, and that “periphery” spreads may widen a bit as investors’ risk appetite deteriorates. 28th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pandemic savings won’t rescue the economy The value of savings that households built up during the pandemic has been wiped out by inflation. Rising interest rates, together with a desire to rebuild the spending power of their savings, suggest... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Profit margins another potential threat to inflation outlook A widening in profit margins could mean that inflation is slower to fall back to the Bank of England’s 2.0% target than we expect. That would cause the Bank to raise interest rates even further than... 28th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Decarbonising UK residential – the biggest challenge? Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) are the main benchmark for environmental standards in UK housing. There is evidence that they are improving efficiency in new-builds and new regulations will... 27th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Feb.) The stabilisation of the EC’s economic sentiment indicator in February contrasts with the significant increases in the PMIs and provides some support for our view that the economy will struggle this... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending data point to recession The effects of tighter monetary policy are clear in the money and credit data. Households and firms have continued to lock their money up in longer-term deposits which are less likely to be spent, and... 27th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Values fall further The rise in prime property yields accelerated in Q4. Despite gains in all-property rents in most markets, this meant capital values fell across all sectors. Declines were particularly sharp in offices... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s economy one year on, Israel’s judicial reform Russia's war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary this week and one of the more surprising macroeconomic developments during this time has been the resilience of Russia's economy, which... 24th February 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Investors’ hawkish shift is justified We don’t think that wage growth will ease to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target without weaker economic activity and a rise in the unemployment rate. The recent resilience of the economy... 24th February 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Returns to stabilise in 2023 after brutal 2022 The surge in yields seen in 2022 will not be repeated in 2023. With much of the repricing occurring last year we think all-property equivalent yields will see only a modest rise of 30bps this year... 24th February 2023 · 27 mins read
