Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question 1740063600 Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Weak economy to weigh on property recovery The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set... 19th February 2025 · 26 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions reduction efforts becoming fractured Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q4 last year as alternative asset yields rose while property yields edged lower, leaving only the prime office sector fairly valued. That said, the falls we... 19th February 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably rise to around 3.5% in the second half of this year. We doubt this will prevent... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2024) While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains subdued as the prospect of higher business taxes and a higher minimum wage in April is... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Peace talks, defence spending, and European markets Increased defence spending in Europe would in our view point not only to higher bond yields but also to wider spreads with German bonds. While industrial equities would presumably benefit, they might... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions on Europe’s defence spending European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Return-to-office headlines obscuring the truth 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Still optimistic on UK house prices, but downside risks growing A weaker economy than we previously thought could mean housing demand is a bit more subdued than we expect. But our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth, to 2.5% q/q annualised, in Q4 suggests the drag on activity from rising tensions with Hezbollah last quarter was a bit larger than we expected. The recent... 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump keeps Europe on its toes All eyes were on Washington this week as President Trump rung the bells for the next phase of a trade war with the EU and sidestepped European leaders with a possible Ukraine peace deal. While... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Unpacking the Trump-Putin call The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK We still believe that tariffs are unlikely to reduce UK GDP by as much as some fear and that the UK is much less exposed than a lot of other economies. But the growing possibility of the UK facing... 14th February 2025 · 11 mins read
