Europe Commercial Property Update Will the Olympics boost Paris prime retail rents? While Paris rents have been flat for some time, there are signs that the post-pandemic rebound in tourism is starting to boost high street luxury retail. And the upcoming Paris Olympics in 2024 will... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates unchanged over the rest of this year. In our view... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Is the cost of living crisis coming to an end? With CPI inflation soon to fall below average earnings growth, the cost of living crisis appears to be coming to an end. But households won’t suddenly stop feeling the pinch. We suspect the level of... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have... 7th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) German industrial output fell in June and we expect it to decline further in the rest of this year as high interest rates and weakening demand take a toll on production. 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (July 2023) With mortgage rates rising to around 6% in July, it was no surprise that the slide in the Halifax house price index continued. Although there might be a modest fall in mortgage rates in the near term... 7th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Minor risk to inflation outlook from extreme weather Extreme weather phenomena in Europe as well as worldwide, including El Niño, could push up food and energy prices. But we think that these only pose a very small upside risk to our inflation forecasts... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Renewed falls in activity and house prices imminent Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5.5% and 6.0% for the next 12 months. That will... 4th August 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Peak does not mean pivot There are two key points to remember as we near the end of the hiking phase of the interest rate cycle and get close to the holding phase. First, a peak in interest rates does not mean that a pivot to... 4th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone won’t keep dodging recession There was something for both the bulls and bears in the euro-zone’s Q2 GDP data, but we fall into the latter camp. We have tweaked our GDP forecasts but still think that the economy will slip into a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in June and we expect them to continue to trend down over the rest of this year as high interest rates take an increasing toll on consumers. 4th August 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 3rd August 2023 · 1 min read
