Europe Commercial Property Update More pain ahead for Italian industrial The Italian industrial market saw its sharpest fall in capital values on record last year, owing to a surge in yields in Q4. But with valuations still stretched and investor demand weakening, we think... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Mapping economic reforms for the UK The numerous “plans for growth” that have been announced by the Government, the Opposition, and various commentators in recent months vary in their analytical rigour but all miss one crucial point... 9th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Feb.) The slight recovery in the new buyer enquiries balance in February suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates allowed a limited revival in demand. But with sales volumes falling... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Euro-zone Drop-In: ECB March meeting preview 1678788000 With another 50bps rate hike at the European Central Bank’s March meeting looking like a done deal, all eyes will be on how policymakers signal the path ahead for monetary tightening.
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2023 Preview We expect the Spring Budget on 15 th March to contain some giveaways confined to 2023/24. But a downgrade to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) medium-term GDP growth forecasts will prevent... 8th March 2023 · 17 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial pipeline not a major risk A record amount of industrial space is currently under construction, which looks poorly timed given the upcoming recession. However, the sector is entering the downturn in a strong position with very... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2022) Revised figures show that the euro-zone economy flatlined in Q4 last year and that domestic demand dropped sharply. There have been some positive signs in the past couple of months, but policy... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) The big rebound in German industrial output in January suggests that industry may continue to hold up well in the face of the energy crisis. However, with the renewed drop in retail sales pointing to... 8th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The economic and market consequences of the Spring Budget 1678894200 What will UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt deliver in his Spring Budget?
UK Housing Market Data Response Recovery in house prices adds to optimism The substantial recovery in Halifax house prices in February added weight to the view that we will see a stand off between buyers and sellers that causes transactions to slump, but minimal price falls... 7th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Feb.) The headline CIPS construction index rebounded back into expansionary territory in February and the forward-looking indicators also showed further improvement. Commercial developers may be taking... 6th March 2023 · 2 mins read
