Event Drop-In: What does banking sector turmoil mean for March central bank decisions? 16th March 2023, 3:00PM GMT Starting with the ECB today, some major central bank decisions are due in the shadow of recent banking sector turmoil. Will policymakers press ahead with their fight to rein in inflation, or will the…
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q4 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q4 showed a slump in demand, as rising mortgage rates began to bite. The latest MLAR data confirmed the sharp turnaround in market conditions and suggest that... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Spring Budget 2023 Checklist This checklist helps clients keep track of the key forecasts announced during the Spring Budget at 12.30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 15 th March. Our more detailed preview is here. We will send a Rapid... 14th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan./Feb.) The labour market remained tight in January. Even so, the Bank of England will breathe a sigh of relief as wage growth is easing. Together with the collapse of a couple of US banks having tightened... 14th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Jan.) The large increases in industrial production and retail sales in Turkey in January suggest that the economy got off to a strong start in early 2023. Activity will have been disrupted from the... 13th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation came in slightly softer than expected in February, at 11.0% y/y, and it will fall to the central bank’s 4% target in March as base effects pass through. We don’t think there’s been... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Unpacking our new euro-zone forecasts There were some surprises in the Q4 commercial real estate data from the euro-zone, in particular in how swiftly yields have risen. Taken together with changes to our economic view these imply further... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish DM central banks may delay rate cuts in CEE The growing expectation that interest rates in developed markets will rise further and stay higher for longer than previously anticipated isn’t prompting us to abandon our view that central banks in... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession or not, economy is set to suffer The second estimate of euro-zone GDP confirmed that the economy stalled in Q4 last year and also revealed that domestic demand fell off a cliff. Data published so far this year point to continued... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Slimming the size of the possible recession With the hit to real activity from high inflation having been and gone and mostly absorbed by government handouts and a real terms reduction in households’ pandemic savings, we no longer think there... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m rise in real GDP in January (consensus +0.1% m/m, CE +0.4% m/m) will raise hopes that the economy will escape a recession in 2023 and will increase calls for the Chancellor to splash the... 10th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time. 10th March 2023 · 2 mins read
