Emerging Europe Rapid Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2023) Q2 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally came in below expectations and suggest that the region continued to suffer the ill-effects from high inflation and interest rates last... 16th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) CPI inflation fell to a 17-month low of 6.8% in July, as the effects of the lower utility price cap kicked in. But with services price inflation rising from 7.2% to 7.4% (Bank of England forecast 7.3%... 16th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: macro stability risks now crystalising The decision by Russia’s central bank to increase its policy rate by 350bp, to 12.00%, at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the challenges that policymakers are now facing to maintain... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Russian central bank’s 350bp interest rate hike, to 12.0%, at today’s unscheduled meeting is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. But there’s little the central bank... 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2023) The fall in employment in the three months to June and further rise in the unemployment rate will be welcomed by the Bank of England as a sign labour market conditions are cooling. But with wage... 15th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden Consumer Prices (July) The unchanged readings for both headline inflation and the Riksbank’s target variable suggest that a further interest rate hike in September is highly likely. 15th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone core inflation follow the US down? Core inflation has been falling for around a year in the US and we suspect that it won’t be long before it starts falling in the euro-zone too. However, while core goods inflation in the euro-zone is... 14th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK unlikely to follow the US closely this time While the evidence of broad-based, rapid disinflation in the US offers some hope for the UK, we suspect the UK will not quickly follow the US. Instead, we think the UK's recent problems of higher... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024... 11th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s windfall tax, France’s cruise ship The kerfuffle over the Italian government’s planned windfall bank tax is not likely to have any lasting impact on the economy, not least because PM Giorgia Meloni moved swiftly to limit the damage... 11th August 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun./Q2 2023) The 0.5% m/m rise in real GDP in June and 0.2% q/q increase in Q2 (CE, BoE, consensus 0.1% q/q) confirmed that a recession has so far been avoided. But with much of the drag from higher interest rates... 11th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why has the EZ labour market remained so strong? We are unconvinced by Cristine Lagarde’s claim that the recent strength of employment in the euro-zone is due mainly to labour hoarding and shifts in the sectoral composition of employment. Instead... 10th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hike and signal one more increase We think Norges Bank will go through with its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 4.0%, and follow that up with a final hike in September to 4.25%. 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bucharest office rental surge could have further to run Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (July) July’s decline in inflation in Norway was broadly in line with the central bank’s forecast. So Norges Bank is likely to go ahead with its planned 25bp rate hike next week. 10th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Given the recent rise in average mortgage rates to their highest level since 2008, we are not surprised by the further deterioration in the RICS headline survey figures. And as we do not expect market... 10th August 2023 · 3 mins read
