Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Re-thinking Turkey’s policy shift, Prigozhin’s death The 750bp rate interest hike by Turkey's central bank this week was a major surprise and there are still reasons to be sceptical about the policy U-turn that's underway. At this point, however, we're... 25th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany struggling but “sick man” is overdoing it Worries that Germany is becoming the “sick man of Europe” have resurfaced over the past few weeks. While we think the German economy is heading back into recession this seems too alarmist. In many... 25th August 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Interest rate medicine is starting to work The phasing out of the government's support packages and the growing drag from higher interest rates probably explain why the economy appears to have lost momentum in recent months. Since these drags... 25th August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 25th August 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Denmark’s success complicates monetary policy Denmark’s economy has been among the fastest-growing since the pandemic and, although growth will slow in the coming months, we expect it to continue outperforming the euro-zone. Nonetheless, the DNB... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank’s much larger-than-expected 750bp interest rate hike, to 25.00%, at today’s meeting will go a long way towards reassuring investors that the shift back to policy orthodoxy is... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Flat prices likely to outperform Having risen in value by much less than houses over the past three years, flats were selling at the biggest discount to houses on record at the beginning of the year. But higher mortgage costs are... 24th August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update An end in sight to the German retail rout? The German retail market has been one of the weakest in Europe since the beginning of 2022 and rental performance so far in 2023 has been well below the euro-zone average. But, with consumer... 24th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rise in gas prices not yet a big inflation risk The increase in the spot and particularly futures prices of European natural gas in the past few weeks suggests that there is an upside risk to our forecast for euro-zone inflation next year. However... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2023) Property yields rose across all sectors and markets in Q2. However, this was somewhat offset by rises in bond yields in most countries. As a result, valuations remain stretched in all sectors, with... 23rd August 2023 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in gas prices could make the BoE’s task harder In an environment in which firms feel able to pass on higher energy costs in their selling prices, the latest leap in wholesale gas prices poses an upside risk to our forecast for core CPI inflation... 23rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Aug. 2023) The fall in the activity PMI to below the boom-bust level of 50.0 in August supports our long-held view that the economy will enter a recession. And with weaker activity dampening price pressures, we... 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (August 2023) August’s flash PMIs were worse than expected, particularly in Germany, and are consistent with our view that the euro-zone economy will contract in the third quarter and that underlying price... 23rd August 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: The natural gas market in the European winter 1694008800 A mild winter 2022/23 helped Europe dodge a bullet of high gas prices.
Europe Economics Update Boost from tourism is large this year, but will decline While difficult to quantify, we estimate that the growth of tourism added around 0.3% to euro-zone GDP growth in the first half of 2023. However, we think growth will be much slower in the second half... 22nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
