Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (July) Aggregate German industrial output fell sharply again in July and the fall was even larger if the construction and energy sectors are excluded. We expect production to drop further in the rest of the... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain and Italy hit harder by ECB rate hikes The higher share of floating rate mortgages in Italy and Spain means that household interest spending in both countries has risen much further than in Germany and France. Interest spending is also set... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why the slump in values feels different this time The latest real estate data suggest that the current drop in capital values in the euro-zone will be as bad as the post-GFC correction. But market sentiment has been less negative this time... 6th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kicked off its easing cycle today with a much larger-than-expected 75bp cut to its main policy rate, to 6.00%. We will firm up new interest rate forecasts after... 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2023) Euro-zone retail sales fell in July and, in our view, will keep declining over the rest of the year as the effects of tighter monetary policy continue to feed through to consumers. 6th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE inflation falling, but a long way back to target Sharp falls in inflation mean that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are on the cusp of a broad-based monetary loosening cycle. That said, we think that the legacy of the inflation... 5th September 2023 · 20 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Pandemic trends are approaching their end The adoption of remote work meant central London was left out of the COVID-19 house price boom. But with house prices in outlying towns and rural areas around the capital starting to stagnate too... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (August 2023) The final PMIs published today were revised down from the already-low levels reported in the flash measure two weeks ago. The Services Business Activity PMI slumped compared to July, and although the... 5th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI: another hawkish hold, rate cuts still some way off The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.75%, and while our baseline forecast is that the tightening cycle is now over, the BoI’s hawkish comments support our view that... 4th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss GDP (Q2.) Weak manufacturing and investment weighed on the Swiss economy in Q2, leaving GDP unchanged from the previous quarter. We think activity will be sluggish for the rest of the year as the effects of... 4th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Growth upgrade suggests UK no longer such a laggard The news that the UK economy may now be 1.5% bigger than its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic size, rather than 0.2% smaller, suggests the economy has been much stronger than we previously thought. But with the... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE to talk up high for long This week the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, said that he didn’t think interest rates will rise much further from 5.25% now but that rates are likely to stay high for a long time. We’re... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker economy, lower inflation Data released this week are consistent with our view that euro-zone core inflation has passed its peak and that the economy will contract in Q3. And July’s euro-zone retail sales and German industrial... 1st September 2023 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that industrial sectors in Poland, Czechia and Turkey remained in the doldrums last month, but Russia’s PMI rose further and the prices balances provide... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
