Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Easing supply constraints supporting activity The latest official activity data suggest that the euro-zone economy posted a small expansion in Q1, and we expect April’s PMIs, published next week, to be consistent with continued growth. The... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Structural weaknesses weigh on Warsaw office rents After a strong 2022, we expect Warsaw offices to face a more difficult time ahead. Falling employment and hybrid working practices will limit any revival in demand after 2023 and leave rents... 14th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Sweden’s measure of core inflation to 8.9% in March suggests that it may now be passed its peak. But it is still much higher than the Riksbank had anticipated at its February meeting and... 14th April 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update The Turkish lira can’t defy gravity forever Although the Turkish lira is at its weakest ever level against the US dollar, it would have fallen far further by now were it not for intervention by policymakers. We anticipate that the currency will... 13th April 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure sector to suffer as savings are exhausted Despite the cost-of-living crisis, the leisure sector did better than expected last year as households used the savings they had built up during the pandemic to boost spending on recreation and... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with weaker activity The fading effects of the mini-budget meant that bank lending conditions to households and businesses didn’t deteriorate any further in Q1. But the latest credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP (Feb.) The stagnation in real GDP in February means the economy probably avoided recession in Q1. But it also increases the chances that the Bank of England will need to raise interest rates further to... 13th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Mar.) The marginal improvement in the headline prices paid and new buyer enquiries balance of the RICS Residential Survey did not alter the overarching message that prices are falling and sales slumping. 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices immediately after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Feb.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for February showed that the impact of the earthquakes on the economy was larger than we and most others had anticipated. But we think this will... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weighing up the risks from open-ended property funds In light of the recent flare-up in commercial property related financial distress and news that investors have been rapidly pulling money out of property funds in Europe, we are re-sending this Update... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hikes may come sooner rather than later We think the Bank of England may opt to raise interest rates further from 4.25% sooner rather than later. Our central forecast is for interest rates to rise from 4.25% now to a peak of 4.50% and for... 6th April 2023 · 9 mins read
