Capital Daily Peace talks, defence spending, and European markets Increased defence spending in Europe would in our view point not only to higher bond yields but also to wider spreads with German bonds. While industrial equities would presumably benefit, they might... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key questions on Europe’s defence spending European governments are poised to further scale up their plans for defence spending in the coming years which should benefit the equity prices of European defence companies, but the boost to GDP is... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response Return-to-office headlines obscuring the truth 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Still optimistic on UK house prices, but downside risks growing A weaker economy than we previously thought could mean housing demand is a bit more subdued than we expect. But our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests... 17th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Israeli GDP growth, to 2.5% q/q annualised, in Q4 suggests the drag on activity from rising tensions with Hezbollah last quarter was a bit larger than we expected. The recent... 17th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump keeps Europe on its toes All eyes were on Washington this week as President Trump rung the bells for the next phase of a trade war with the EU and sidestepped European leaders with a possible Ukraine peace deal. While... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Unpacking the Trump-Putin call The phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin this week and comments by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth caught many by surprise, but these developments have not materially changed our view... 14th February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Trump’s tariffs tirade becomes more troubling for the UK We still believe that tariffs are unlikely to reduce UK GDP by as much as some fear and that the UK is much less exposed than a lot of other economies. But the growing possibility of the UK facing... 14th February 2025 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump talks Ukraine peace, EU gas slides; metals tariffs The possibility of the EU increasing pipeline supplies of Russian natural gas following Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Putin has contributed to a sharp fall in EU gas prices. Whether or not... 14th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think there is limited scope for interest rate cuts this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to end the... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to leave interest rates on hold at 21.00% today was widely expected, and the hawkish communications suggest that policymakers are not going to bend to... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q4 2024) The euro-zone economy performed a little better than previously though t in Q4, but growth was still extremely weak and the early signs are that it got off to a slow start to 2025. There is also... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update High demand to spur construction in southern Europe Booming demand for housing has led to huge price rises in southern Europe over the past few years and will support rapid construction growth for some time to come. Moreover, there is little risk of a... 13th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Peace in Ukraine? Market implications of Trump-Putin call President Trump’s push for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war would affect major financial markets mainly through lowering energy prices, especially in Europe. In turn, that would be a boost... 13th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: growth has peaked but war adds to uncertainty GDP growth in Russia came in stronger than most expected last year at 4.1%, but this was accompanied by significant overheating and policymakers lost control of inflation. We think the period of rapid... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 25) Property valuations worsened in Q4 as alternative asset yields rose and property yields essentially held steady. 13th February 2025 · 1 min read
