UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2024) August’s money and lending data provide further evidence that the gradual improvement in credit demand and supply in response to the falls in lending rates is supporting the economy. But the Bank of... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Price Index (Sep. 2024) September’s 0.7% m/m rise in Nationwide house prices suggests that August’s 0.2% m/m fall was just a blip and that the recent falls in mortgage rates are supporting house prices. What’s more, the... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP & National Accounts (Q2 2024) Q2 GDP growth of 0.5% q/q was a bit weaker than the previous estimate of 0.6% q/q, but the ONS also confirmed today that due to revisions to previous years’ data the economy is now 2.9% bigger than... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The implications of more public investment A big increase in public investment in the Budget on 30th October would push up demand before any rise in supply is felt. That could mean over the next year or two inflation is a bit higher than... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France & Spain HICP (September 2024) September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target. 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German logistics to go from leader to laggard Tight supply conditions have boosted German prime logistics rents despite weak occupier demand. This looks set to continue over the next year or two given completions pipelines for the German markets... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 · 44 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s fiscal problem – from bad to worse France’s new government suggested yesterday that the budget deficit will be over 6% of GDP this year, rather than the 5.6% as indicated only a couple of weeks ago. We expect the government to struggle... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Leisure to struggle as high earners’ incomes squeezed The leisure sector is yet to show signs of recovery from the cost-of-living crisis, in part because still-cautious households are prioritising buying goods rather than expensive leisure services. But... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to cut rates by at least another 50bp While the SNB only cut the policy rate by 25bp today to 1.0%, the accompanying statement was very dovish and indicated that there are at least two more rate cuts on the way, probably in 25bp... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
