UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates unlikely to fall further As mortgage lenders’ net interest margins are already very narrow, the increase in market interest rates over the past fortnight means that the decline in mortgage rates from their spike after the... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The rally in euro-zone equities may reverse before long We think euro-zone equities will struggle as the region’s economy weakens more than investors expect. 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK? Inflation in the UK has stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has endured the worst of both worlds – a big energy shock (like the euro-zone) and labour shortages (even worse than the US). Admittedly... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s strong growth unlikely to be sustained Romania's economy has outperformed its peers in Central and Eastern Europe over the past year, but domestic demand looks unsustainably strong and a period of weaker growth will be needed to reduce the... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank beating the ECB to 3.5% The Riksbank will raise its key policy rate by another 50bp next week, bringing it to 3.5%, and we think a final 50bp increase is most likely in June. Policymakers sounded pretty hawkish at the... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (March) Final inflation data confirmed that the drop in headline inflation in March was entirely due lower energy inflation. With the core rate not yet passed its peak, we think the ECB will raise rates to a... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Plunging energy price inflation will soon drag down CPI inflation more significantly, but the stubbornness of core inflation suggests that the fight against inflation is lasting longer than the... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Feb./Mar.) The labour market became a bit less tight in February and wage growth continued to ease, albeit slowly. That leaves the Bank of England with a tough call on whether to raise interest rates further... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests to leave some questions unanswered Recent events have highlighted that meeting regulatory capital and liquidity requirements does not guarantee that banks will be financially stable. The forthcoming EU bank stress test results should... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Shift towards cheaper homes challenges statisticians The divergence between the Nationwide and Halifax House Price Indices of late has cast some doubt on the direction of house prices. A struggle to adjust the statistics for a shift towards cheaper... 17th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Surge in household incomes unlikely to be sustained Some of the continued resilience of the economy has been due to the performance of household incomes, which in real terms hasn't been as weak as we expected. Some of that is due to government payments... 14th April 2023 · 10 mins read
