UK Housing Market Update Can Labour move the dial on housing supply? Labour has made housing a major theme of its conference, and the party’s attitude towards New Towns and social housing means that the next election could prove a turning point in the structure of the... 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czechia Consumer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Czech inflation in September, to 6.9% y/y, increases the chance of policymakers kickstarting a monetary easing cycle at their next meeting in November. We remain... 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (September) As a result of September’s weaker-than-expected inflation data from Norway, we now think that Norges Bank’s tightening cycle is over. 10th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Italy’s public debt? The recent shift towards looser fiscal policy in Italy and increase in sovereign bond yields once again have raised concerns that investors may lose confidence in Italy’s ability to sustain its debt... 9th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bond market sell-off a reminder of real estate fragilities The scale of the rise in bond yields over recent weeks has provoked worries about the impact on real estate. The sell-off presents an upside risk to our yield outlook, but we think falling inflation... 9th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (August) The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components. However, it still left manufacturing output very subdued, and we expect... 9th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey rebalancing, UAH, Glapinski’s guidance Data out of Turkey this week provided some of the first clear signs that the recent policy U-turn is starting to rebalance the economy. This couldn’t come any sooner – Turkey remains among the most... 6th October 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economy contracted in Q3 and we expect it to shrink further... 6th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What the bond market sell-off means for the euro-zone The bond market sell-off, and associated tightening of financial conditions, reinforces our view that the ECB has finished hiking. The market moves have been nowhere near big enough to prompt the ECB... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Climate Economics Update CBAM wouldn’t affect UK industries equally Becoming liable for the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) would nullify any cost-reduction benefit from a lower carbon price for UK companies that trade closely with the EU. That said... 6th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 23) The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for euro-zone “peripheral” spreads While we think the risk of a material increase in euro-zone “peripheral” spreads has risen, our central forecast remains that they will end 2024 a bit below their current levels. 5th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) kept its main policy rate unchanged at 7.00% today, and we expect policy to remain on hold into next year. The NBR will be the last in Central and Eastern Europe to... 5th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Decline in values to match GFC; offices fare worst With economic activity weakening, we expect rental growth to continue trending downwards over the next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched despite property yields continuing to rise at... 4th October 2023 · 36 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Slowing momentum in activity, the recent decline in employment, and the sharp falls in core CPI and services inflation in August are clear signs that higher interest rates are weighing more heavily on... 4th October 2023 · 1 min read
