UK Economics Weekly Optimism on inflation, fiscal challenges for next government Although we still think that the UK’s inflation problem will dissipate slowly rather than suddenly and the situation in the Middle East poses an upside risk to our inflation forecasts, leading... 20th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Poland’s stronger-than-expected activity data for September suggest that the economy started on its road to recovery in Q3. With inflation and interest rates falling, we expect GDP growth to... 20th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Sep. 2023) The 0.9% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in September meant sales volumes fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 and suggests that after the 18-month-long retail recession came to an end in Q1, the sector may already... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Sep. 2023) September's public finances figures continued the recent run of better-than-expected news on the fiscal position, bringing some consolation to the government on a day when it has lost two by-elections... 20th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE Oct/Nov decisions – On hold but then what? 1698937200 Senior economists from across our euro-zone, US and UK services held an online briefing on the October/November meetings of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England and the latest messaging from their poli
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Evaluating energy transition risk to European offices Anticipation of legislation requiring minimum standards of energy efficiency is already impacting CRE values as investors price in transition risk and this pressure is likely to ramp up in the coming... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Oct. 23) After a brief respite earlier this year, property yields are once again on the rise, driven by a further increase in gilt yields. We don’t expect a repeat of the surge seen last year, but we also... 19th October 2023 · 1 min read
ECB Watch From pause to plateau There is little doubt that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged next week, with the deposit rate on hold at 4%. Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but this won’t... 19th October 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher r* - bigger fiscal challenge, headwind for real asset prices As our new higher estimate of the real neutral interest rate, or r*, for 2030 appears to be above the assumption priced into the financial markets, we think that in the 2030s 10-year gilt yields will... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Wage pressures have peaked, but may ease only gradually There is a growing body of evidence that suggests wage pressures are past their peak, but it’s not clear how quickly wage growth will slow. The gradual loosening in the labour market and the... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP Breakdown (Sept.) The breakdown of euro-zone HICP inflation data for September, published today, reveals that there was a significant fall in inflation for tourism-related services as the summer season ended. This... 18th October 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Sep. 2023) The failure of CPI inflation to fall in September from August’s rate of 6.7% will be a bit of a disappointment to most. But at 6.7% it is still below the 6.9% rate the Bank of England projected back... 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Raising our long-run ECB interest rate forecast We have recently published detailed analysis arguing that equilibrium interest rates in advanced economies are now higher than they were before the pandemic, and that they will continue to rise over... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Stable Swiss politics supports the economic outlook Switzerland’s government looks set to remain largely unchanged after the federal elections this Sunday, and we do not expect a significant change in economic policy. But voters’ grievances about the... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Aug./Sep. 2023) Cooling labour market conditions appeared to start feeding through into an easing in wage growth in August. That supports our view that interest rates have peaked at 5.25%. But as we suspect wage... 17th October 2023 · 3 mins read
