FX Markets Update Why we continue to think sterling will depreciate We doubt sterling’s strong run will continue; we still think that an economic downturn in the UK and other advanced economies will lead to renewed downward pressure on sterling later this year. 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s improving labour market There is no sign yet that the remarkable improvement in France’s labour market is going into reverse. But we suspect it will do later this year as monetary policy tightening takes effect. Meanwhile... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s property issues flare up again The fragility of Sweden’s property sector hit the headlines again this week as commercial real estate firm SBB suffered a downgrade of its credit rating to “junk” status and cancelled its dividend... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Mar. & Q1) The news that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m in March and grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q1 as a whole (consensus +0.1% q/q, Bank of England 0.0% q/q, CE +0.1% q/q) suggests that lower real household... 12th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales bounced back strongly in March, supporting our view that the impact of the earthquakes was short-lived. GDP growth is likely to have remained positive in Q1. But... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoE gives little away, but we still expect lower gilt yields While we would not be surprised if the Bank of England raises rates by a bit more in the coming months, we think investors are underestimating the scope for rate cuts further ahead. We expect this to... 11th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden's property credit crunch intensifies The recent downgrading of Swedish property company SBB’s credit rating to “junk” and the ensuing market fallout have highlighted financing fragilities in the Swedish property market. But, while SBB is... 11th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update If we’re not there already, the peak in interest rates is close Today’s 25 basis point rise in interest rates from 4.25% to 4.50% takes rates to our long-held forecast and may be the last hike, although one or two more hikes are possible. We suspect the subsequent... 11th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (11th May) 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) In contrast to signs of a stabilisation in house prices and sales volumes in other indicators, the RICS survey remained downbeat in April. In particular, the renewed fall in the new buyer enquiries... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election clouds outlook for Greece Greece has arguably been the positive surprise in the euro-zone over the past few years and near-term prospects look good. However, the forthcoming election may usher in a coalition government which... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s election: Q&A on an opposition victory There’s a lot of optimism that the opposition will emerge victorious in Turkey’s elections, which would pave the way for a return to orthodox economic policy. Were this to happen, it would set the... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The small slip in the Halifax House Price index in April bought it a little more in line with the Nationwide figures. But prices remain remarkably resilient to the largest rise in mortgage rates since... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
