Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: more tariff threats, Germany votes President Trump’s statement this week that he plans tariffs on pharmaceuticals as well as motor vehicles is just the latest in a long list of protectionist threats. For now, we still think the risk to... 21st February 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Rebound in inflation could spell trouble for the BoE With households particularly sensitive to rising food and energy prices, we're becoming more worried that the Bank of England can't ignore the big increase in food inflation in January and the coming... 21st February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Feb. 2025) The composite activity PMI was unchanged in February, which is consistent with the economy moving sideways in the middle of Q1, following a 0.1% q/q rise in Q4 of last year. (See Chart 1.) But more... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (February 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 21st February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The leap in retail sales volumes in January shows that the retail sector shot out of the blocks at the start of the year. But some of that strength will have come at the expense of weakness in other... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jan. 2025) While January’s disappointing public finances figures may not be as bad as they first appear, they continue the run of bad news for the Chancellor in 2025 and underline the difficult choices she faces... 21st February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine... 20th February 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much longer can global hotels outperform? Hotels have seen a considerable turnaround in the past five years given the near-existential threat that the pandemic posed to the sector. Having bottomed last year, we expect values will grow in the... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: what to expect on election night and beyond Germany’s next government looks set to cut taxes and, if the parliamentary maths allow, reform the constitutional fiscal rule. It is also likely to be firmer in its support for Ukraine even as support... 20th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question 1740063600 Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Weak economy to weigh on property recovery The economic outlook has worsened over the past couple of months, which supports our call that the recovery in commercial property will be modest by past standards. Admittedly, interest rates are set... 19th February 2025 · 26 mins read
Climate Economics Update Emissions reduction efforts becoming fractured Whereas political pushback against the cost of climate action is hindering policy in North America and Europe, the tailwinds from China’s low-cost green technology exports are becoming more... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q4 last year as alternative asset yields rose while property yields edged lower, leaving only the prime office sector fairly valued. That said, the falls we... 19th February 2025 · 0 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) CPI inflation took another step up from 2.5% in December to 3.0% in January (consensus, BoE, CE 2.8%) and will probably rise to around 3.5% in the second half of this year. We doubt this will prevent... 19th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response US-Russia talks don’t signal near-term end to the war The decision by the US and Russia to “lay the groundwork” to end the war in Ukraine marks a potentially significant turning point after three years of conflict. Negotiations will take time and the... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Dec. 2024) While there was a small improvement in labour market activity in December and January, employment growth remains subdued as the prospect of higher business taxes and a higher minimum wage in April is... 18th February 2025 · 3 mins read
