Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.)

The further chunky rise in Russian inflation to 6.7% y/y in October provides additional evidence that demand is outstripping supply in Russia’s economy. We think that inflation will continue to rise...

10th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Hawkish CEE central banks, EU expanding further east

Communications from central bankers across Central and Eastern Europe this week struck a decisively hawkish tone, suggesting that interest rates could be left on hold across most of the region in the...

10th November 2023 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Impact of higher rates spreading beyond housing

Whether or not Q3 marked the start of a recession, the recent resilience of the economy appears to be fading as the drag from higher interest rates grows. The weakness in the housing market has...

10th November 2023 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Revolving doors on the Iberian peninsula

The resignation of Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa and news of a coalition government being formed behind incumbent Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez this week could shift the two economies’ relative...

10th November 2023 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Norway CPI (Oct. 2023)

Despite the unexpected jump in Norway’s headline and core inflation rates in October, we still think the Norges Bank is most likely to leave rates on hold in December.

10th November 2023 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Sep./Q3 2023)

The Q3 GDP data will spark a big debate about whether or not the economy is in recession (the published growth rate was 0.0% q/q, but GDP declined by 0.03% or £173m). But the key point is that the...

10th November 2023 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE sovereign debt dynamics becoming more fragile

Governments across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) need to deliver significant fiscal tightening over the coming years to prevent public debt ratios from grinding higher. The risk of an imminent...

9th November 2023 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 23)

The past prices balance remained deeply negative in October contradicting the 1% m/m increases in house prices recorded by both Halifax and Nationwide. But a recovery in buyer enquiries suggests the...

9th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

The ECB’s recent decision to leave interest rates on hold, and its associated communications, confirm that its tightening cycle is now almost certainly over. But despite inflation having fallen...

8th November 2023 · 1 min read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

The recent weakening in employment, easing in wage growth and signs that households are saving more and spending less have provided more confidence that higher interest rates are working. But we think...

8th November 2023 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

8th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

8th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

European banks weathering CRE crash

Despite the steepest crash in commercial property values on record, the credit risk and asset quality of European banks’ commercial real estate lending is holding up well. Further declines in values...

8th November 2023 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep. 2023)

Euro-zone retail sales fell in September and, in our view, will remain weak in the coming months as the economy falls into recession.

8th November 2023 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Construction activity will continue to decline

Activity in the euro-zone’s construction sector is declining and the outlook is poor. The latest surveys suggest that construction output will decline by up to 2% q/q in Q4.

7th November 2023 · 2 mins read