Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel rate cut bets increase, key stories from Q3 GDP Data for October out of Israel this week suggest that the initial impact of the conflict with Hamas on the export sector was fairly limited, that inflation pressures continued to ease and that the... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany’s constitutional court strikes again The constitutional court ruling that the German government's use of off-budget funds is unlawful is another headache for the ruling coalition in Berlin. However, we doubt that it will result in as... 17th November 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Oct. 2023) The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in October means that after contracting by 1.0% q/q (which was downwardly revised from -0.8% q/q) in Q3, retail activity remained weak at the start of Q4... 17th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank hike back on amid strong price pressures Recent developments will have given policymakers at Norges Bank food for thought ahead of December’s interest rate decision. While we had initially rejected the central bank’s guidance that it would... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2023) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The slowdown in rent growth so far this year is likely to persist given the weak economic backdrop... 16th November 2023 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to buck the trend and hike again While the world’s major central banks now appear to have ended their tightening cycles, we think the Riksbank will raise its policy rate by 25bp again next week, to 4.25%, because of the strength of... 16th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) The rise in Russian GDP growth to 5.5% y/y in Q3 was larger than expected and adds to evidence that the economy continued to overheat last quarter. With fiscal policy set to loosen further and... 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: outlook remains fragile despite oil price boost The squeeze on Russia’s budget and current account positions has eased over the second half of this year, largely thanks to a rise in oil prices. Higher energy revenues next year should help to limit... 15th November 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2023 Preview - Short-term political gain worsens long-term fiscal pain With the government still languishing far behind in the opinion polls and an election required before the end of January 2025, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is under more pressure than ever to pull... 15th November 2023 · 20 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sept.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in September and is likely to continue contracting in the final quarter of the year, primarily due to weak demand. 15th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Oct. 2023) The fall in CPI inflation from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October is a bit bigger than expected, brings inflation a bit closer to the rates in the US and the euro-zone, all-but confirms the Prime... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update How worried should we be about wage growth? While wage growth will continue to slow, the smaller-than-expected fall in September supports our view that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at their current level of 5.25% until late in... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.) and Employment (Q3 2023) We do not think the slight acceleration in employment growth in Q3 is a sign of things to come. With business surveys deep in contractionary territory and firms’ hiring intentions falling sharply, the... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (Oct. 2023) The increase in the Riksbank’s target measure of inflation in October was broadly as anticipated and does not change our view that, while it will be a close call, policymakers are most likely to raise... 14th November 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Sep./Oct. 2023) With wage growth continuing to ease and signs that a further loosening in the labour market lies ahead, higher interest rates appear to be gradually working. But our view that wage growth will ease... 14th November 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rental affordability at its worst for over a decade While the official measure of rental growth is running at record highs, pay has risen even faster. So, at face value rental affordability is good by historic standards. But that doesn’t account for... 13th November 2023 · 3 mins read
