Europe Economics Weekly Employment will not defy gravity forever We learnt this week that the euro-zone fell into recession but Eurostat confirmed that employment rose sharply in Q1. The labour market seems to have remained quite strong in April and May but we... 9th June 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rates haven’t hurt…yet Higher interest rates haven’t dented the real economy much because household incomes have been unusually strong and the interest rates households are actually paying on their loans has not yet risen... 9th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone bond yields may have already peaked While we anticipate that the ECB will deliver more rate hikes this year, we don’t think that this would trigger another leg up in long-term euro-zone government bond yields. In fact, we suspect that... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) News that GDP contracted in Q1 after all means that the euro-zone has already fallen into a technical recession. Given that the impact of policy tightening is yet to fully feed through, we suspect... 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Refinancing risks increase The recent upward revision to our mortgage rate forecast and the fact that the majority of those that need to refinance this year are on two-year fixes means that we are now more worried about the... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will less generous online returns help retail property? Recent economic difficulties have forced online retail to tighten their returns policies. At face value, this seems good news for retail property as it may shift demand back to stores for certain... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) The significant improvement in the RICS survey in May echoed the pause in house price falls in the past few months. But the survey also showed an increase in supply, which could make prices more... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and BoE June meetings 1686837600 What will major advanced economy central banks decide at their June meetings, and how will those decisions be messaged?
Europe Economics Update TLTRO redemptions to reduce banks’ liquidity More than €1trn of TLTROs will be redeemed over the next eighteen months, significantly reducing euro-zone banks’ liquidity and pushing up their funding costs as they adjust their balance sheets... 7th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Apr.) The disappointingly small rebound in German industrial production in April suggests that the boost from lower energy prices and improved global supply conditions at the beginning of the year has run... 7th June 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Why is the UK economy lagging behind? Many of the factors that explain the UK’s chronically weak GDP growth since the pandemic, such as the shrinking of the UK’s workforce and low export growth, won’t disappear any time soon. This... 6th June 2023 · 6 mins read
