Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (August 2024)

Euro-zone retail sales edged up in August but were still below their level in May. The big picture is that overall consumption growth is likely to remain subdued.

7th October 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Halifax House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The third consecutive monthly rise in the Halifax house price index in September provides further evidence that the falls in mortgage rates are supporting demand and pushing up house prices.

7th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Israel’s economy under pressure amid latest escalation

Israel’s economy has frequently bounced back from conflict throughout its history, but developments over the past week have raised the risk of permanent scarring to the economy from the ongoing...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Oil prices would need to jump further to influence BoE

While the Bank of England is watching the developments in the Middle East “very closely”, Governor Andrew Bailey said that the Bank could start cutting interest rates more aggressively if the good...

4th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Event

UK Drop-In: Budget reaction – Rachel Reeves’ statement and the UK economic and market consequences

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After months of speculation, investors will find out how the UK Chancellor plans to balance tax, spending and investment decisions as the new government tries to

Event

UK Drop-In: Budget preview – What to expect from Rachel Reeves’ big day

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This could be a Budget statement that defines the UK economy’s performance through the rest of this decade.

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.)

The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to pause its easing cycle today, leaving the policy rate at 6.50%, seems to reflect growing concern about the persistence of underlying inflationary...

4th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

France budget needs more than temporary fixes

Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is...

4th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another...

4th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high

Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest...

4th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home...

4th October 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia’s defence spending to raise inflation, fiscal risks

The 2025 draft budget recently outlined by Russia’s finance ministry shows that, rather than falling next year as initially planned, defence spending will rise by more than 20% to hit 6.2% of GDP...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We see more weakness in GBP, notably against EUR

The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

Headline inflation will be below 2% next year

After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to...

3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Out-of-town retail will continue to beat the street

Non-high street retail subsectors have seen a stronger rental recovery from post-pandemic lows than high street shops. And we think this outperformance will continue given tighter availability and...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read