Asia Economics Update How big are the risks from Korea’s property downturn? A sharp rise in Korean interest rates over the past 18 months is leading to a steep downturn in the property market. Encouragingly, the banking sector looks well placed to cope, but the broader... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event EM Asia Drop-In: Thailand’s election and near to long-term economic risks 1683792000 The Thai economy is poised for recovery this year, but before that the country faces a contentious general election on 14th May which could be a trigger for fresh political unrest.
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade and Inflation (Apr.) A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Auto rebound unlikely to last, new currency forecasts Automotive production across Asia, which was badly hit during the pandemic by a shortage of semiconductor components, is now rebounding rapidly as this constraint unwinds. This is providing a boost to... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q1) GDP in Korea rose slightly during the first quarter of the year but we think the economy faces a difficult year ahead as high interest rates and weak external demand weigh on output. 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a second consecutive meeting today, and attempted to push back against expectations of a rate cut this year. But with the economy... 11th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean industry struggling, CPTPP+UK Korea’s manufacturing sector is in for a painful year with bloated inventories and weak external demand set to drag on production. Data published earlier today showed that production of semiconductors... 31st March 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian banks in decent shape, but credit risks lurk The turmoil in the global banking system over the past month has had a limited impact on Asia – currencies have held up well and outflows of capital have been small. And in general, banking sectors in... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 1680163200 Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update East Asian equities may hold up despite plunging exports Falls in exports from Korea and Taiwan have weighed on corporate earnings in these economies, but even if that continues for a while we think their equities will hold up fairly well. 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%), but appeared to leave open the door to further hikes later in the year. However, with the economy struggling badly and inflationary... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
