Emerging Asia Chart Pack Asian banks in decent shape, but credit risks lurk The turmoil in the global banking system over the past month has had a limited impact on Asia – currencies have held up well and outflows of capital have been small. And in general, banking sectors in... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 1680163200 Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM slowdowns and NPLs: lessons from the past Non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have risen by as much as 4-5%-pts during non-banking crisis downturns in EMs in the past. This time around, there are reasons to think that the increase will be... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update East Asian equities may hold up despite plunging exports Falls in exports from Korea and Taiwan have weighed on corporate earnings in these economies, but even if that continues for a while we think their equities will hold up fairly well. 23rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Korea: cuts coming sooner than consensus expects The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%), but appeared to leave open the door to further hikes later in the year. However, with the economy struggling badly and inflationary... 23rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic drag worsening Figures released today highlight the dreadful demographic outlook facing Korea, with the population (excluding migrants) falling for a third year in a row. Poor demographics are the key reason why we... 22nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Focus Korea: recession and rate cuts The near-term economic outlook for Korea is very poor, with falling real incomes, problems in the housing market, and weak global demand all set to weigh on prospects this year. Our forecast is that... 21st February 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea turns dovish as downturn worsens Despite the jump in inflation last month, the worsening activity data means the Bank of Korea is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its February meeting. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4) Economic output fell in the final quarter of 2022, and we think the economy will continue to struggle over the coming year as high interest rates and weak overseas demand weigh on prospects. Our 2023... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding won, Vietnam politics, dovish surprises The rebound in the won is unlikely to be welcomed by the country’s struggling exporters, but will come as a relief to the Bank of Korea, which had become worried that higher import prices would keep... 20th January 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Korea: tightening cycle over, rate cuts later this year The Bank of Korea today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 3.50%) and relatively dovish comments by Governor Rhee support our view that the tightening cycle is now over. With growth set to... 13th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Korea Trade (Dec.) Manufacturing PMIs across the region rose slightly in December but remained weak overall. We continue to expect weaker global demand, high inflation and interest rates to drag on manufacturing ahead. 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read