Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have reached a turning point Having surged over the past year or so, EM exports appear to be peaking as final demand is levelling off and commodity prices are dropping back. That said, exports will likely remain at elevated... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st - 20th August) Korean export values look set to hold steady at elevated levels in August. With few signs of a drag from virus disruptions, the levelling off in exports probably instead reflects a plateau in final... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from major emerging markets have picked up sharply over the past couple of weeks, driven by virus concerns, growing expectations that the Fed will begin tapering asset purchases... 20th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike rates next week With new cases of COVID-19 rising, most analysts expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. While it is likely to be a close call, we are sticking with our view that the... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Korea: the next 30 years Korea has performed relatively well through the pandemic, and we expect the economy to emerge from the crisis with little lasting damage. However, the long-run outlook is less promising. Although... 17th August 2021 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Slow vaccine progress will delay return to normality Slow vaccine rollouts mean the economic disruption from COVID-19 is likely to last well into next year in many countries. There are a few exceptions though. In particular, Singapore has already... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMIs for Emerging Asia point to sharp contractions in manufacturing in those places worst affected by the virus. With outbreaks likely to remain a key headwind for months to come, the rapid... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Virus now hitting industry in Malaysia and Vietnam Industry in Malaysia and Vietnam was already feeling a pinch from restrictions and worker shortages brought about by a jump in COVID-19 cases, but the situation is deteriorating fast. Data early next... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Singapore: moving beyond zero-COVID In a bold move that will be closely watched across the region, Singapore is set to drop its implicit target of pursuing zero local COVID-19 cases, with restrictions set to be eased gradually from... 28th July 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2, provisional) Korea’s recovery looks set to continue in the quarters ahead after GDP rose further above its pre-crisis level in Q2. Provided the economy proves relatively resilient to the latest wave of the virus... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam-US tensions ease, new GDP forecasts Surging virus cases have cast a shadow over Vietnam’s near-term outlook, but there has also been some good news in the form of Monday’s announcement of a resolution to the long-running currency... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are starting to plateau, after reaching very high levels. We expect some softening ahead as supply chain shortages bite and final demand weakens a touch. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Shifting towards rate hikes Falling virus cases, strong economic recoveries and/or inflation worries prompted several more EM central banks – those of Czechia, Chile, Hungary and Mexico – to tighten monetary policy in the past... 15th July 2021 · 11 mins read
