Asia Economics Weekly Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken Despite surging cases of COVID-19 in Korea, the economy appears to be holding up well. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will resume its tightening cycle in April. Meanwhile, the... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation now the biggest concern for the BoK Concerns about inflation in Korea are rising, just as those about financial stability risks are starting to recede. Despite the worsening growth outlook caused by the surge in energy prices and war in... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly New GDP growth forecasts We are cutting our GDP growth forecasts for many parts of emerging Asia in response to the surge in global energy prices and the war in Ukraine. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: new president a clear break from Moon Yoon Suk-yeol’s victory in yesterday’s presidential election should lead to a shift away from the bigger, and more active state that began under President Moon. But the lack of a parliamentary... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election Inflation has become a major policy headache for the Bank of Thailand after figures released today showed that the headline rate surged to a 14-year high in February. Given the weakness of the economy... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Presidential election a watershed moment for Korea Korea’s presidential election on 9 th March will have major implications for the country’s economic future. A pledge by the ruling DPK’s candidate to introduce a universal basic income could bring... 3rd March 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (Feb.) February Manufacturing PMIs and Korean trade data show that regional industry had another strong month. This should offset some of the Omicron-related weakness in service sectors this quarter. 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack How will central banks respond to rising oil prices? The recent jump in oil prices poses a significant upside risk to our inflation and interest rate forecasts for this year. Central banks would normally “look through” a one-off jump in the price level... 28th February 2022 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, zero-COVID holdouts The main channel through which Asia will be affected by the crisis in Ukraine is higher oil prices. We are sticking with our non-consensus view that most countries in Asia will leave interest rates on... 25th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea: a very hawkish hold A large upwards revision to the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) inflation forecast as it left rates on hold today signals that more tightening is just around the corner. We still expect three more 25bp hikes in... 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January Manufacturing PMIs suggest that regional industry remains in rude health after a very strong end to last year. While there are signs that producers are having some success in tackling large... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s COVID shift, Q1 Outlooks A successful vaccination campaign means that, despite a surge in COVID cases, Korea is sticking with its plans to reopen the economy. This supports our view that Omicron will have only a small impact... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Rising virus numbers unlikely to derail recovery The Omicron variant is spreading quickly across Asia. Daily virus numbers are now at record levels in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. However, the economic impact of Omicron is shaping up to be... 27th January 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) While Omicron means that the strong GDP growth recorded in Q4 2021 is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, the recovery should be back on track before long. With the economic outlook still upbeat... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
