Asia Chart Pack Exports take a turn for the worse Emerging Asia’s exports have taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Leaving out China, the region’s merchandise exports, measured in US dollar terms, contracted at the sharpest annual rate in... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but further loosening likely soon Having surprised markets last month with a rate cut, Bank Indonesia (BI) left its key policy rate on hold today at 7.50%. Although we expect to see further rate cuts this year, the pace of easing is... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah weakness is unlikely to revive Indonesia’s economy The weakness of the Indonesian rupiah is unlikely to kick-start a recovery in the country’s non-commodity export sector. For one thing, it has not left Indonesian exporters looking any more... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fragile five whittled down to three The fragile five have been whittled down to three as economic reforms have helped to reduce the vulnerability of the Indian rupee and Indonesian rupiah to the recent bout of emerging market currency... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin prices to rise even without an Indonesian export ban After recording a small surplus in 2014, we expect the tin market to plunge back into deficit this year and prices to rise. As such, any attempt by Indonesia’s producers to curb exports may be... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Where next for Indonesia’s current account? We see little prospect of an improvement in Indonesia’s current account over the next couple of years. This could leave the rupiah vulnerable when the Fed starts to tighten policy later this year... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Bauxite shortfall to support alumina prices Lower bauxite availability, owing to the Indonesian export ban, and dwindling Chinese stocks will impede alumina production this year, leading to higher prices. 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets continue good run Equity markets in Emerging Asia recorded another month of solid gains in February. Currencies did not fare as well, particularly the Indonesian rupiah, which has continued to weaken against the US... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Aggressive rate cuts unlikely in Indonesia With inflation set to stay elevated until the end of the year and the current account deficit likely to remain a source of vulnerability, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to signal the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Shifting dynamics in the tin trade Indonesia’s efforts to dictate the tin market look increasingly futile as China finds a new source of tin ore and lifts domestic refined production. However, despite the changing dynamics, the bigger... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia today reported another quarter of weak GDP growth. The figures underline that the country’s new president, Joko Widodo, faces a tough challenge to reinvigorate the economy, despite a... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equity markets make winning start to 2015 Emerging Asian equity markets have got off to a strong start to the year, while the performance of Asian currencies has been much more mixed. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Interest rate cuts to be exception rather than rule Expectations that the fall in oil prices will trigger a wave of interest rate cuts across Asia are probably wide of the mark. Admittedly, Pakistan, India and Singapore have each loosened monetary... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Jokowi’s first 100 days: a promising start Indonesia’s new president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) has made an encouraging start to hispresidency. But tougher challenges lie ahead, while a corruption scandal is raising questions about... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Lower oil prices to support growth The recent sharp drop in global oil prices is a positive development for Emerging Asia. It will support growth in most economies and will put downward pressure on inflation, providing scope for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
