Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates further next year Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.25% probably represents a pause in the central bank’s easing cycle, rather than a halt. We continue to think that with... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How do our forecasts differ from the consensus and the IMF? For most countries, our forecasts are a little bit below those of both the consensus and the IMF. However, there are three economies, Hong Kong, the Philippines and Pakistan where we think other... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for September suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors ended Q3 on a solid note. Focussing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Taiwan’s... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities and currencies come off the boil Asian equities and currencies have generally fallen over the past month. Although worries about the Fed have played a role, local factors have been important too. 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to remain subdued, interest rates to stay low Whereas the consensus is expecting monetary policy in Emerging Asia to be tightened next year, we think central banks will be in little hurry to raise interest rates. One of the main reasons is the... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut rates again before year-end Given the economy’s poor growth prospects and the subdued outlook for inflation, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. However, as the central bank... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will tougher sanctions on North Korea work? The United Nations has agreed a new set of sanctions on North Korea, which while falling short of what was originally demanded by the US, constitute the strongest sanctions ever imposed on the country... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia easing cycle to be gradual Given the improving outlook for inflation in Indonesia, we think today’s 25 basis point cut in the main policy rate is unlikely to be the last in the current cycle. We expect one further rate cut this... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Indonesia’s run of remarkably steady GDP growth continued in Q2, with the economy growing by 5.0% y/y, unchanged from the 5.0% expansion recorded in Q1. Looking ahead, with commodity prices likely to... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Emerging Asia’s PMIs for July suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors started Q3 on a subdued note. Focussing on the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Taiwan’s... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Second half of the year bodes well for coffee Last month, the spread between arabica and robusta coffee prices fell to its lowest level in over ten years. Elsewhere, France recently announced that it will curb the use of palm oil in biofuels... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook How long will the recovery last? A pick-up in exports will lift growth in Emerging Asia to a five-year high in 2017, but mounting domestic headwinds means that this is unlikely to be sustained. We expect growth to slow in 201819... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The June PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest that the region’s manufacturing sectors remained in decent health. The pick up in the PMI readings in Taiwan and Korea – the two economies where the PMIs most... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian financial crisis twenty years on There are more differences than similarities between the situation now and the position many Asian countries found themselves in on the eve of the Asian financial crisis 20 years ago. But there is no... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian equities continue to rally Asian equity markets have continued to rally, with stock markets in Taiwan, Korea, India and Indonesia all recently hitting new record highs. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
