Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to cut interest rates further Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to cut interest rates today suggests that for now at least it is prioritising the economy over supporting the rupiah. We think further rate cuts are likely over the... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The PMIs point to an improvement in manufacturing conditions last month, although many readings are still low and suggest that overall manufacturers continue to struggle. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to ease further Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates today for the first time in three months, but the modest 25bp cut suggests that it remains worried about the outlook for the rupiah. Given the bleak growth... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Which countries will rebound fastest? The high-frequency data that we track suggest that while economic activity is picking up across most of the region, the pace of recovery varies significantly by country. We expect China, Singapore... 8th June 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bumps in Korea’s recovery, how to interpret the PMIs A couple of new outbreaks of coronavirus in Korea’s capital city, Seoul, has led to renewed fears of a second wave of infections. The recent spike appears to have put the recovery on hold and has led... 29th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update How bad is the outlook for Indonesia? Indonesia is making much slower progress than others in the region in containing the spread of the coronavirus. This will hold back the economic recovery. We are cutting our GDP growth forecast for... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates left on hold, but more cuts coming Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today at 4.5% is a big surprise given the slump in economic activity and the rebound in the rupiah. We think it will cut interest rates... 19th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Infections ease, but recovery proving slow Though there are notable exceptions, there are some encouraging signs that new infections of the coronavirus are falling in many places in Emerging Asia. The slowing spread of the virus should allow... 8th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q1) GDP growth in Indonesia held up better than most in Q1, but we doubt this resilience will last. Indonesia was later than other countries to lockdown its economy, meaning more of the hit will have... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia sank sharply in April and are unlikely to have bottomed out yet in many places. Any recovery in industry thereafter is set to be very slow going. 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South Asia and Indonesia are a big worry We remain deeply concerned about the rapidly rising number of cases of coronavirus across South Asia as well as Indonesia. A failure to contain the virus would have significant economic consequences... 27th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will a drop in remittances cause further pain? The scale of job losses and falls in incomes caused by coronavirus containment measures across the world – but particularly in the US and the Gulf – is likely to weigh heavily on remittance inflows... 16th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia to resume easing cycle if rupiah holds up Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, but the cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and dovish comments in the press conference suggest that further rate cuts are... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Lifeline for Bank Indonesia, more stimulus on the way With the rupiah recovering strongly over the past week, we think Bank Indonesia will lower interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday. Meanwhile, more countries have unveiled fiscal stimulus and support... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs for Asia suggest that industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus, and we suspect the readings will deteriorate much further in the next couple of months. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Slump in rupiah may prompt more aggressive action The slump in the rupiah poses a major threat to Indonesia because of the country’s high level of foreign currency debt. So far, the response of the central bank has been to step up its intervention in... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
