Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from June This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in June, including the narrowing wedge between the EU and UK carbon prices, and what Nobel Prize-winning climate scientist Claudia... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – Where next for equities, bonds and FX? 1720533600 Will hype around AI continue to fuel a US stock market rally? How are elections and monetary policy shaping the path for bond yields?
Event Drop-In: Commodities Outlook – Where next for energy, gold and industrial metals prices? 1719909000 Will China’s economy continue supporting metals demand? What would Donald Trump’s re-election mean for energy markets?
Event Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty 1719820800 Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?
Long Run Focus The consequences of falling fertility rates There is huge uncertainty about whether fertility rates have reached a floor in those countries with the lowest rates. But even if they start to rise again, it is almost unavoidable that a rising... 24th June 2024 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Update Where we stand after June monetary policy meetings We held an online Drop-In session late last week to discuss the outlook for monetary policy following the June policy meetings of the Bank of England, US Federal Reserve and ECB. (See a recording here... 24th June 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Greenback broadly flat as DM easing cycle gathers pace Despite more central bank policy announcements this week, most currencies fluctuated within a tight range and the dollar seems set to end the week broadly flat – boosted a bit by the release of PMI... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show weaker activity but resilient price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in most major advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2. But weaker services activity hasn’t translated to softer price pressures, meaning central banks... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves? The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Update Fiscal constraints working against the green transition The tightening of fiscal constraints is putting pressure on politicians to pare back green investment ambitions. But kicking the fiscal can down the road on measures that could accelerate the green... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on the EU’s deforestation regulation The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will rejig the way commodity imports enter the EU when it comes into force later this year and could lead to premiums for compliant commodities over non... 17th June 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar ends rollercoaster week a touch stronger The US dollar has been taken on a rollercoaster ride this week. The US CPI and PPI reports for May have suggested that price pressures are gradually easing. These somewhat promising data reports have... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Peak oil debate slightly misses the point The focus in oil markets this week was on the long term with the IEA predicting that oil demand will peak in 2029 while OPEC argued there is no peak in sight. In any case, when the peak occurs is only... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
