Chief Economist's Note In the China versus US size stakes, it’s what you measure that counts The outsized attention paid to Taiwan’s presidential election this past weekend is in part a reflection of the breakdown in relations between the US and China and the 21 st century’s big geopolitical... 15th January 2024
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The stalemate in currency markets continues After a strong start to the year, the US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, as inflation data releases out of the US this week failed to generate much of a... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports to hold firm, for now China’s commodity imports were generally strong in 2023 and while growth rates will probably slow this year, we expect volumes to remain high in the coming months. 12th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What Taiwan’s election could mean for markets This Update discusses how we think Taiwan’s election this weekend – which could be another flashpoint in Taiwan-China relations – might affect global equity markets, in aggregate and across some key... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the... 11th January 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Industrial metals price weakness rolls over into 2024 This week was a mixed bag for commodities. As tensions in the Middle East continued to rise, oil prices edged up despite an increase in US petroleum product stocks pointing to sluggish demand... 5th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Overview Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Commodities Overview Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the big declines in energy prices are now behind us. Oil prices will remain... 5th January 2024 · 0 mins read
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Energy prices will fall in 2024, although we think the big falls are now behind us. Supply has not... 4th January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of the latest disruption in the Red Sea The redirecting of trade ships away from the Red Sea and the associated rise in shipping costs are unlikely to lead to a resurgence in global inflation. However, if the warfare underpinning the... 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of valuations in currency markets While we estimate the US dollar remains only somewhat above “fair value”, the valuations of some other major currencies are at extreme levels. For these currencies – notably the Mexican peso and Czech... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Metals Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Interest rate cuts across advanced economies this year will give some boost to economic activity... 3rd January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak PMIs suggest soft start for industry in 2024 Although the manufacturing PMIs have overstated the weakness of industry for a while, the big picture from December’s surveys was that global industrial activity was barely growing at the end of 2023... 2nd January 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities wrapped; shipping chaos; OPEC frictions While the robusta price had the largest gain this week (~11%) due to ongoing drought and dry conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, the rebound in oil prices captured most of the attention, as this was... 22nd December 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update COP28 & long-run energy demand The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy... 21st December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Shipping disruption unlikely to alter inflation’s course The rerouting of trade ships away from the Red Sea has come at a time of disruption to shipping elsewhere in the world, but it is unlikely to alter the broad pattern of falling core inflation in 2024... 21st December 2023 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update What to watch on the climate front in 2024 As 2023 draws to a close, this Update looks at three key climate themes to watch in 2024. In short, one should look beyond the inevitable climate-related rhetoric in the run-up to looming elections... 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read