Global Economics Update

PMIs suggest global industry off to a weak start in Q3

The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity slowed sharply at the start of Q3, and that activity will probably slow further. But weaker activity hasn’t taken the heat out of...

1st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Asset Allocation Chart Pack (July 2024)

We don’t think the recent rotation in US equities sets the stage for something much bigger. We expect the “big-tech” sectors to lead the charge again before long, helping equities in the US outperform...

31st July 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

What a hawkish BoJ might mean for markets

Today’s decision by the BoJ to tighten policy by more than discounted in the markets was accompanied by a stronger yen, higher bond yields and a rise in the stock market. However, we don’t think these...

31st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle

In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Long Run Update

Will ageing populations drag on productivity?

As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The macro impact of an Israel-Hezbollah conflict

The rocket strike on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend has heightened fears of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. For Israel, this risks adding to...

29th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble

Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen.

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar keeps calm, carry trade unwinds

At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves...

26th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Update

India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks

Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

Trump & ESG markets

We think that a second term for President Trump would probably worsen the outlook for sustainable energy equities at the margin, and also add to the pessimism around stocks in the beleaguered electric...

25th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

Sticky services inflation raises upside risks

Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us...

25th July 2024 · 16 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs offer some hope of easing services price pressures

The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Rapid Response

First thoughts on the global IT outage

The global IT outages affecting Windows software are causing huge temporary disruption to certain sectors including travel and healthcare, but while things are still very uncertain we do not...

19th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Global rate-cutting cycle is not “one size fits all”

While the global monetary policy loosening cycle is now well underway, there is more nuance than you might assume. Recent data have made us more confident that cuts (or further cuts) are to come in...

18th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Gold jewellery to lose its lustre under high prices

Gold jewellery demand has been highly sensitive to price changes in the past and so will come under pressure from the current backdrop of record high gold prices. Income growth in key markets will...

17th July 2024 · 3 mins read