Commodities Update How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps? With the means, motive and opportunity for Saudi Arabia to undergo a reversal in oil policy falling into place, this Update thinks through the possible ramifications of such a move. In short... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update China stimulus unlikely to have big spillovers to DMs We may learn more about the size and structure of China’s fiscal package over the next couple of weeks, but based on what we know the impact on advanced economies will probably be small. The bigger... 16th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update US continues to lead the way on our AI index A year ago, we developed our proprietary AI Economic Impact Index, which ranks major economies according to their ability to realise the benefits of AI. We have updated that index, and the big picture... 11th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences 1729670400 There’s less than a month to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.
Event Drop-In: US election preview – Trump vs Harris and macro/markets consequences 1729605600 There’s just two weeks to go until Election Day and polling suggests this is going to be a nail-biter.
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
Bonds & Equities Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets continued to rise in the third quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Risks to oil supply take centre stage With all eyes on the extent and focus of Israel’s retaliation against Iran, the risk premium is going to dominate near-term proceedings in the oil market; depending on how things pan out, prices could... 4th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will US equity underperformance last? While some drivers of the US stock market’s recent underperformance are likely in our view to persist, we think that they will soon be outweighed by renewed enthusiasm about AI. And only when the... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Spike in oil risk premium masks fundamental frailties Until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deescalates, oil prices will clearly remain at risk of spiking higher. But against a backdrop of faltering demand and greater supply in the wider... 2nd October 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know 1728396000 The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.
Global Economics Update PMIs signal marked slowdown in global industry In addition to indicating that goods price pressures eased in September, the latest batch of manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industry slowed sharply towards the end of Q3. But with interest... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East The strike by Israel in Lebanon that killed Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by Israel and Iran. On its own... 30th September 2024 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Muted PCE supports our view of an even weaker dollar Today’s release of weaker-than-expected US PCE data for August led investors to revise down slightly their expectations for the fed funds rate, and the DXY index slipped as a result. This, alongside... 27th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly China stimulus a silver bullet for metals? Think again The stimulus packages announced by Chinese policymakers were the main reason behind the chunky increases in industrial metals prices this week, and explain why they performed better than most other... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Notes from LSE Environment Week Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of... 26th September 2024 · 3 mins read
