Climate Economics Update

One US deficit that won’t worry Trump

President-elect Trump’s distaste for trade deficits surely does not extend to worrying about the US’s large-scale import of carbon emissions through trade flows. The global imbalance between importers...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Trump-shaped shadow looms large over COP29

COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration

Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are...

6th November 2024 · 14 mins read

Commodities Update

If at first OPEC+ don’t succeed, delay, delay again

OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase...

4th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs still paint a bleak picture for global industry

While the latest PMIs suggest that global industry started Q4 on a slightly better footing, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains poor, especially in advanced economies. Meanwhile, although...

4th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Where will interest rates trough and why?

We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

A short guide to a big week

Commodities Weekly

Trump trade comes for gold; palladium surges

Having behaved “normally” over the summer, gold prices have slipped back into anti-traditional-driver mode in recent weeks, seemingly caught up in a wider “Trump trade”. One can – and plenty surely...

25th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Inflation Watch

2% core inflation by mid-2025 across DMs

With goods inflation vanquished, the last leg of disinflation in advanced economies must come from falling services inflation. After plateauing at the start of the year, services inflation has fallen...

24th October 2024 · 17 mins read

Global Economics Update

Weak PMIs make the case for faster rate cuts

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth got off to a weak start in Q4 in most major advanced economies. The surveys also imply a slowdown in both services activity and employment growth in...

24th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat?

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Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.

Global Economics Update

The macro & market implications of the US election

We held online Drop-In sessions with clients this week to discuss how we factor the US election into our thinking on the macro and market outlook for the US and other parts of the world. This Update...

24th October 2024 · 10 mins read

Global Economics Focus

Getting a clear read on labour market conditions

The September release of US non-farm payrolls was just the start of a run of strong employment releases in advanced economies this month, reigniting fears about pay growth and inflation. However, when...

21st October 2024 · 13 mins read

Capital Daily

Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities

The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come.

21st October 2024 · 5 mins read