Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The surprise fall in headline inflation to 2.8%, from 2.9%, is further reason to expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates soon, although we still think it will wait until June rather than... 19th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar.) House prices stabilised in February and, despite emerging signs of financial stress among households, we believe that the risk of renewed price declines is limited. Nonetheless, with affordability so... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Debt for another day Households are offsetting the impact of high interest rates by paying down less of their debt. While that has helped the economy to avoid recession, it also suggests there will be less of a boost from... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan. 2024) Lower prices mean that the muted 0.2% m/m rise in manufacturing sales in January was better than it looked, with sales volumes rising by a much stronger 1.1%. That strength was entirely due to the... 14th March 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour markets starting to support case for rate cuts The latest data from major advanced economies typically show that unemployment rates are rising and pay pressures are easing. While wage growth is still too high for comfort in most cases, we suspect... 12th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem leaves the door open for a June cut Governor Tiff Macklem dropped a hint this week that the Bank of Canada may be ready to cut rates by June. There was little in the data to dissuade the Bank, with unemployment rising and bankruptcies... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb. 2024) The Bank of Canada will be relieved to see renewed labour market slack putting downward pressure on wage growth. While the Bank will need to see wage growth soften further before it pivots to rate... 8th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update There is still room down for bond yields in some DMs Given our view about monetary policy, we expect government bond yields in some developed markets such as the UK to fall markedly this year. In some other places, like the euro-zone, we doubt central... 7th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives little away The Bank of Canada gave little away about the potential timing of interest rate cuts today, although its communications suggest that it is gaining a bit more confidence that inflation is moving in the... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise again before long A fall in the participation rate has kept a lid on unemployment in recent months but, given rapid population growth, we continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.5% later this year. 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft landing, at least in aggregate The return to growth in the fourth quarter means it is probably safe to say that the economy has avoided recession, but that is mainly due to rapid immigration. Per capita GDP fell for the fifth... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Although the economy returned to growth last quarter, spare capacity continues to accrue, and we expect CPI inflation to return to the 2% target by the third quarter. That leaves scope for the Bank of... 29th February 2024 · 0 mins read
