Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) In response to the slump in home sales that began four months ago, the annual rate of house price inflation fell to 13.1% in August, from 14.2%. That slump points to sharply lower house price... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Storm clouds gathering in Canada too The housing investment boom may have breathed its last gasp last quarter. With existing home sales floundering and average sale prices dropping, tighter mortgage financing rules and ill-timed interest... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although employment rose by a moderate 10,900 in July, the much larger gain in full-time jobs and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%, from 6.5%, are encouraging and point to stronger wage growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing slump going from bad to worse Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data continue to show home sales floundering. More importantly, home... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Headline employment increased by a stronger than expected 45,300 in June, compared to the consensus estimate of a 10,000 gain, but wage cost pressures remain subdued. Accordingly, there’s nothing in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to keep interest rates at 0.50% The Bank of Canada’s new-found optimism in the economy means that there is a risk it could raise interest rates very soon, but we don’t think a rate hike next week to 0.75%, from 0.50%, is a foregone... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank can’t ignore low inflation The Bank of Canada’s recent hawkishness doesn’t fit with the weaker core inflation data. Amid further warnings from the BIS about the dangers of sticking too closely to inflation targets when asset... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence more positive despite housing slowdown The latest Business Outlook Survey highlights that, despite the potential disaster unfolding in the housing market, businesses expect faster GDP growth this year, which obviously explains the Bank of... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Despite a slight drop in housing-related activity, GDP increased by 0.2% m/m in April, suggesting that the economy began the second quarter on a stable footing. But given the downswing in home sales... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing boom turning to bust After a strong start to the year, the economy now appears on the verge of a slowdown as the housing boom turns to bust. Home sales have tumbled and we fear that the coming correction in house prices... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House price inflation set to plunge Housing was top of the agenda at a meeting of federal and provincial policymakers earlier this week, amid signs that the Bank of Canada is perhaps preparing to hike interest rates. Meanwhile, with... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) While the drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.3% in May, from 1.6%, can be partly explained by lower energy price inflation, the decline in certain core inflation measures are weaker than most... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rally in Canadian dollar may have run its course Despite hawkish comments from the Bank of Canada, we don’t expect the rally in the Canadian dollar to go much further. Given signs of a correction in the housing market, we doubt that the BoC will... 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hike is far from a done deal The Bank of Canada mentioned this week that the economy is gathering momentum and indicated that it is considering hiking interest rates soon, prompting financial markets to quickly raise bets on a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) After a downward revised decline in March, manufacturing sales volumes rebounded by 0.5% m/m in April, indicating that the industrial sector began the second quarter on a firmer footing. Further... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (May) Despite a further slowdown in Vancouver, the national rate of annual house price inflation rose to 13.9% in May, from 13.4%, reflecting an acceleration in Toronto. But the big slump in home sales and... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
