Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) & Trade (Nov.) The solid 78,600 increase in employment in December and the drop in the unemployment rate to 5.7%, from 5.9%, suggest that the domestic economy is coping well with recent increases in interest rates... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets expecting more than one rate hike in 2018 The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates twice this year and the reminder by Governor Stephen Poloz last week that “the economy will need less monetary stimulus over time” have resulted... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Falling household wealth another downside risk Although GDP growth this year was the fastest in three years, the pick-up was partly due to a bounce back from the earlier oil price shock. Unfortunately, the bigger issue now is that declining house... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Shrinking household wealth another problem The latest balance sheet data show that household indebtedness is even worse than previously thought, but the bigger problem now is that falling home values have begun to erode household net worth... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The large 1.5% m/m drop in manufacturing sales volumes in October was much weaker than the consensus estimate, suggesting that broader economic growth slowed at the start of the fourth quarter. 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The third consecutive monthly decline in the composite house price index in November led to a further slowdown in the rate of annual house price inflation to 10.0%, from 11.4%. The recent slump in... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage pressures still muted The latest wage data indicate that there’s little risk of inflation overshooting the Bank’s 2% inflation target anytime soon. For this reason among others, the Bank has nothing to gain by raising... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2018 Although the economy probably grew by 3% in 2017, the gains were overly-dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That was possible when interest rates were near record lows and home values... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada interest rate hike cycle over The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 1.00% today and its cautious policy statement indicate that, in contrast to the market view, it is in no hurry to raise rates again soon. We... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The rebound in merchandise export volumes in October, following four straight months of declines, is an encouraging start to the fourth quarter. The Bank of Canada will need far more convincing signs... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Census data shed more light on low inflation The latest batch of Census data released earlier this week on the labour market cast doubt over the quality of the jobs created since the 2008-09 recession. There are still signs of prime-aged workers... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank already starting to regret rate hikes The Bank of Canada will leave interest rates at 1.00% at its policy rate meeting next week and, by putting emphasis on the uncertainties clouding the outlook, will signal that it isn’t contemplating... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Gradually scaling back support despite low inflation Despite the fact that core inflation in advanced economies has generally remained very low, policymakers are committed to reducing policy support and/or raising interest rates next year. Fed officials... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Softwood lumber production should rebound The recent decision by the US to impose countervailing and dumping duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber appears to have dampened softwood lumber production, despite favourable lumber prices... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada already doubting itself Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin’s speech earlier this week suggested that the Bank of Canada is already beginning to doubt its earlier upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, which was behind its... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The 0.5% m/m increase in manufacturing sales values in September, driven by an increase in sales volumes, points to a potential rebound in industrial production. That’s an encouraging sign for GDP... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
