Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The resurgence in Vancouver house prices wasn’t enough to prevent a decline in the annual growth rate of the Teranet composite house price index to a 21-month low of 8.7% in January, from 8.9% in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing faces tighter regulation and higher rates The early regional evidence from Toronto and Vancouver revealed that the tightening of mortgage lending standards at the start of this year did hit home sales in January, but the declines were not... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The hike in Ontario’s minimum wage to $14.00 an hour on January 1st, from $11.60, had a devastating impact, with 59,300 part-time jobs lost in the first month alone, equivalent to 4.3% of part-time... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $3.2bn in December, from $2.7bn, illustrates that Canada is still struggling to benefit from the broad acceleration in global economic growth. The stagnation in... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to slow in 2018 The Canadian economy had a pretty good year in 2017, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.9%, up from 1.4% in 2016 and only 1.0% in 2015. But last year was a tale of two halves, with exceptionally strong... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m increase in November’s GDP was reassuring after the near-stagnation in October, and December was probably a good month too, but we remain concerned that growth will slow in the first half... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update TPP deal overshadowed by NAFTA uncertainty The news that Canada has reached a deal on a new free trade agreement with the remaining ten TPP countries is no game changer since, even in the long term, the boost to Canadian GDP will be a trivial... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Higher interest rates a big gamble The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates to 1.25% yesterday has reinforced expectations of further rate hikes later this year. According to futures markets, there is a 22% chance of a... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to hike interest rates further The Bank of Canada’s raised interest rates to 1.25% today, from 1.00%, and its more upbeat economic outlook suggests that it will hike rates again later this year, probably in April. In contrast to... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The small gain in national house prices in December, boosted largely by Vancouver, didn’t prevent a further slowdown in the rate of annual house price inflation to 9.1%, from 9.2%. The recent slump in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank could hike interest rates again as soon as next week The Bank of Canada will increase interest rates again early this year, possibly as soon as next week, particularly after learning that businesses are more optimistic. That said, we still believe... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses shrugging off NAFTA uncertainty The improvement in business sentiment in the fourth quarter of last year, most notably the marked rebound in investment and hiring intentions, suggest that the increased uncertainty around NAFTA isn’t... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Minimum wage hikes are a storm in a teacup Minimum wage hikes this year won’t have significant consequences for the broader economy or inflation, nor do they change the interest rate outlook one way or the other. As we have warned before, the... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
