Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The decline in monthly GDP in January was partly due to interruptions in the oil & gas industry and the recent slump in home sales, something which we fear could mark the start of a potentially... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Growth to slow as housing boom cools We expect GDP growth to halve from 3.0% in 2017 to 1.5% in 2018, as tighter regulation and higher borrowing costs bring the housing boom to an abrupt end. We anticipate that growth will remain weak in... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Heavy oil price benchmark likely to rebound Prices of domestic heavy crude oil appear to be going sideways, despite rising world oil prices. This trend has persisted for a few months, but there are still good reasons to believe that these heavy... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The rise in the annual headline and core inflation rates in February appear to be largely due to higher gasoline inflation and base year effects, things which the Bank of Canada will look through at... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Home sales slump worsening The further drop in home sales last month confirms that the slowdown in trend sales that began around a year and a half ago has worsened. Unfortunately, prospective home buyers and sellers are now... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Middle-class families still struggling The 2016 Canadian Income Survey shows that the median household hasn’t benefitted meaningfully from economic growth in recent years. Real incomes of middle-class families have been largely stagnant... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The renewed decline in house prices in February suggests that the housing market is in a price correction. Tougher mortgage rules and recent increases in interest rates have negatively impacted home... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's underperformance to persist The Canadian dollar rebounded yesterday following the confirmation that Canada’s economy will be exempt from US tariffs on steel and aluminium. It isn’t out of the woods yet, however. NAFTA’s future... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The small 15,400 rebound in employment in February, following the much larger drop the month before, was underwhelming and suggests that the underlying trend in hiring has softened, echoing the recent... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada won't risk further rate hikes The Bank of Canada implied in its policy statement this morning that, despite growing concerns around trade, it still believes further interest rate increases will be needed later this year. That said... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The narrowing of the merchandise trade deficit in January is actually a concern because it was driven by a large decline in imports, which points to weakening domestic demand. In addition, the further... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rate tightening cycle likely to be cut short The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again this year, most likely at the April policy meeting. In contrast to the consensus, we don’t see a series of further rate hikes beyond this. NAFTA’s... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation edging closer to 2% target The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures have trended higher and are close to the 2% inflation target. Despite the drop in headline inflation in January, the core inflation data will... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) The small decline in the headline inflation rate to 1.7% in January, from 1.9%, mainly reflects a drop in gasoline price inflation due to base effects. The Bank of Canada’s three preferred core... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
