Canada Economics Weekly Is the construction sector in trouble? June’s employment figures, due for release next Friday, will confirm whether the recent signs of weakness in construction were just a temporary blip, possibly weather-related, or something more... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Despite the slowdown in monthly GDP growth in April, the chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next month has risen following the good performance by conventional industries at the start... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Dollar driven by rate outlook rather than trade fears The Canadian dollar hit a 12-month low this week, dropping to 75 cents against the US dollar. It started this year above 80 cents. Despite that decline, markets appear to be sanguine about the risks... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly weak inflation and retail sales data released today support our view that the Bank of Canada will stand pat at next month’s policy meeting, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Yield curve not a perfect recession indicator in Canada The Canadian yield curve has flattened to its lowest level since the run-up to the late 2008 recession but, unlike in the US, it is not an infallible indicator for predicting economic downturns... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update NAFTA feud escalates The markets have dismissed the G7 trade spat between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as much ado about nothing, which is understandable given the former’s infamously bellicose... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investment boom already beginning to fade The strength of business investment has been one of the economy’s few bright spots over the past couple of quarters, but that surge in capex has done little to boost the economy’s still mediocre... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) One month of falling employment can be chalked up to the notorious volatility in the labour force survey, but two months? That’s not something the Bank of Canada can ignore, particularly not as the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing slump and higher rates weighing on growth We expect economic growth to slow to 1.7% this year and only 1.3% in 2019, as the housing downturn continues to weigh on consumption and residential investment. That weakness will eventually force the... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a six-month low of $1.9bn in April, from $3.9bn, as imports fell back to more normal levels and exports ticked higher. The rise in exports was led by gains in... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s hawkishness already looks premature The Bank of Canada issued a relatively hawkish policy statement on Wednesday this week, which increased speculation that another interest rate hike was coming, possibly as soon as July. But within... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2018) The unexpectedly weak 1.3% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP means that a July rate hike by the Bank of Canada suddenly looks a lot less of a done deal than it did with the release of the more... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank takes a more hawkish view The Bank of Canada left its key policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today but issued a slightly more hawkish statement, which will raise expectations of a rate hike later this year. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising rates add to pressure on housing Home sales dropped to a five-year low in April and the surge in interest rates suggests the downward trend in sales has further to run. Although the Bank of Canada is still on the fence regarding the... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The firming in core inflation and the new-found strength of retail sales will increase speculation that the Bank of Canada is going to increase interest rates again later this year. Our view is still... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in manufacturing sales values in March, which followed an upwardly revised 2.7% m/m gain in February (previously 1.9%) was principally due to rising prices. In volume terms... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
