Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Following June’s jump in exports and decline in imports, net trade appears to have made a decent positive contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. But with a variety of factors likely to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update PMI points to upside risks to growth and inflation Markit’s July PMI survey suggests that both GDP growth and inflation could increase to around 4% in the coming months. We doubt that either will rise that high, but the risks to the outlook seem to... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The consensus-beating 0.5% monthly rise in GDP means that growth over the second quarter as a whole looks to have been 3.0% in annualised terms. The Bank of Canada largely anticipated this strength... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Resumption of NAFTA talks the easy part The more conciliatory tone adopted by Washington in trade talks this week bodes well for the future of NAFTA. But with the US administration also confirming that Canada is viewed as a national... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Will core inflation continue to rise? The upward trend in core inflation over the past year is as much a reflection of past weakness as current strength. Core inflation looks set to remain near 2% in the coming months before dropping back... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Weakening investment intentions spell trouble Economic circumstances suggest that investment growth should be strengthening. Capacity utilisation is at a decade high, the unemployment rate is unusually low and wage growth is picking up. Machinery... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong oil production masking weakness elsewhere The economy appears to have had a stellar month in May, with a potential monthly gain in GDP of almost 1% implying that growth over the second quarter as a whole was close to 3% in annualised terms... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May) The rise in headline inflation to a six-year high of 2.5% in June, from 2.2%, left it above the Bank of Canada’s forecast, while two of the Bank’s three measures of core inflation are now in line with... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Are better times ahead for exporters? New manufacturing orders have recently risen strongly and exporters are more optimistic than they have been in years. However, there are a number of reasons to doubt that an export revival is on the... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Although manufacturing sales rebounded in May and the near-term outlook seems bright, the sector remains on track for a weak second quarter. In the longer-term, competitiveness issues and trade policy... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) The national rate of house price inflation slowed to a near-five-year low of 2.9% in June. With house price inflation in Vancouver now plummeting back down to earth, the national rate looks set to... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank hikes and adopts a somewhat hawkish tone Alongside its decision to raise the key policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50%, the Bank of Canada maintained a fairly hawkish tone in its policy statement. While this suggests that the Bank intends to raise... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What do tariffs mean for inflation? The tariffs announced so far are unlikely to boost Canadian inflation by much more than 0.1% pt, while the effects on economic growth should also be small. We therefore doubt that they will have much... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed employment survey makes Bank’s job harder The Bank of Canada’s policy announcement will take the spotlight next week. Despite June’s Labour Force Survey being something of a mixed bag, the subsequent rise in the Canadian dollar suggests that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) & International Trade (May) Although the unemployment rate rose and wage growth slowed in June, the construction-driven 32,000 increase in employment will soothe concerns about the housing market. Even with exports falling in... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set to raise rates despite growing risks Despite a host of negative developments since the Bank of Canada signalled in May that an interest rate rise was imminent, policymakers still seem eager to raise rates. While we now expect the Bank to... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
