Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2018) The strong pace of growth in the second quarter, and a NAFTA deal if it materialises by Friday, will embolden policymakers. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada is still likely to keep to its commitment... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow Consumer spending growth appears to have rebounded to about 2% annualised in the second quarter. But with real wage gains set to slow further, even that fairly-moderate growth rate seems unlikely to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) While retail sales values and volumes both fell in June, over the second quarter as a whole growth rebounded. However, the slowdown in housing market activity and rising interest rates will limit... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to drop back towards 2% Headline inflation might surpass 3% in August, but by the end of the year it is likely to be little more than 2%. And with core inflation stable, the Bank is unlikely to pick up the pace of its... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falls in commodity prices highlight external risks The declines in commodity prices this week following the crisis in Turkey highlighted the connections that make Canada more vulnerable than many advanced economies to developments elsewhere in the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% in July, from June’s 2.5%, was partly due to rising energy prices but also appeared to reflect a pick-up in general inflationary pressures. We think that the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) June’s gain in sales was flattered by the energy sector, but the key take away is that another rise in unfilled orders bodes well for growth in the third quarter and suggests inflationary pressures... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The decline in the national rate of house price inflation to a five-year low of 1.8% in July is likely to be followed by further weakness in the months ahead. For now, house prices seem more likely to... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Loonie to depreciate even if NAFTA deal is reached A quick NAFTA deal is an upside risk to our forecast for the loonie to remain near its current rate against the US dollar this year. But our forecasts for various commodity prices to decline and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although the 54,000 rise in employment in July blew the consensus out of the water, it was driven largely by temporary jobs, and average earnings growth dropped sharply. Despite the positive headline... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Construction to drag down GDP growth Despite the recent stabilisation of some housing market indicators, steep falls in new home sales this year imply that construction activity will drop sharply over the coming 12 months. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economy’s recent strength unlikely to be sustained The economy’s strength towards the end of the second quarter is partly a bounce-back from earlier weakness and is therefore unlikely to be sustained. While the growing chance of a NAFTA deal being... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds of a H2 interest rate hike increase Although May’s strong GDP growth partly reflected a rebound from earlier weakness, it was nevertheless encouraging and June’s trade data suggest that the economy ended the second quarter on a high... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
