Canada Economics Update Bank leaves the door open for a June rate cut Governor Tiff Macklem sounded relatively dovish in the Bank of Canada’s press conference today, leaving the door open to an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June. 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Insolvency data make for grim reading The insolvency data released this week show the toll that high interest rates are putting on consumers and businesses. That is unlikely to be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar. 2024) The jump in the unemployment rate in March, together with evidence of easing wage pressures, raises the chance of the Bank of Canada surprising markets with a rate cut next week, although our base... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Mixed results from the Bank’s latest surveys The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high... 1st April 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong start to the year unlikely to be sustained The economy made a strong start to 2024, but that was partly due to the end of strike disruption and the record warm winter. We expect GDP growth to slow sharply next quarter, persuading the Bank of... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2024) The broad-based strength of GDP growth in January and February means the economy almost certainly outperformed the Bank of Canada’s expectations in the first quarter and reduces the immediate risk of... 28th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook On course for a soft landing In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US... 28th March 2024 · 45 mins read
FX Markets Update Loonie to weaken further over the course of the year We still expect the Canadian dollar to depreciate against the US dollar as interest rate differentials relative to the US widen and Canada’s terms of trade worsen. 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in... 26th March 2024 · 14 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population growth to plunge The government’s plan to cut temporary resident numbers over 2025 to 2027 will result in the weakest three years for population growth in Canada’s 157-year history. While it might not be enough to... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Stars aligning for a June interest rate cut The surprise fall in February leaves CPI inflation on track to average 2.8% this quarter, well below the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 3.2%. As the decline in inflation pressures was broad-based, there... 22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read
