Canada Economics Weekly Auto tariffs a risk as trade talks drag on Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul) The stronger-than-expected 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that annualised growth in the second quarter may turn out to be closer to 2.0% than the 1.5% we had pencilled in. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economy vulnerable to rate hikes Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) Headline inflation looks set to continue falling to around 2% by the end of the year, as energy price inflation drops back. But with all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures picking... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul) The third consecutive rise in Canadian manufacturing sales in July puts the sector on track for a very strong third quarter. Another fall in new orders suggests that growth may be close to a peak, but... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA talks drag on; housing remains vulnerable The NAFTA negotiations between Canada and the US rumbled on this week, with few signs of a breakthrough during what Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland described as a “continuous negotiation”... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Aug.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q2) After dropping to a nine-year low in August, house price inflation looks set to rebound in the coming months, but we doubt that turnaround will be sustained. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected capacity... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus High debt burdens mean rate hikes will hit hard The large build-up in private sector debt over the last decade means that the Canadian economy is far more sensitive to interest rate rises than in the past. This increases the likelihood that the... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada plays down trade risks While the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged the uncertainty created by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, it also played down the risks of a further deterioration in trade relations. However, given... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) Although August’s sharp drop in employment simply reversed July’s gain, the concentration of losses in high-wage service jobs and construction is concerning. Coupled with a further slowdown in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank likely to raise interest rates in October While the Bank of Canada left its interest rates unchanged today it appears to be heading for a hike in October, although a serious breakdown in the NAFTA negotiations could result in a last minute... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The unexpected narrowing of the trade deficit in July to just $0.1bn, from June’s $0.7bn, suggests that economic growth might hold up a bit better than we expected in the third quarter. 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada to take spotlight from NAFTA talks While the US and Canada are aiming to reach a compromise over NAFTA today, at this stage it’s still unclear whether this will happen. Either way, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
