Bank of Canada Watch Bank to present cautious message as oil prices slump We suspect that the Bank of Canada will deliver a more dovish message next week than investors seem to expect. 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in oil prices negative, but not a disaster The recent slump in oil prices has invoked memories of the 2015 crash, but the Canadian economy looks less vulnerable this time round. Back then, WTI had hovered at close to $100 for four years and... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Vancouver housing heading for bumpy landing After the stabilisation of the Toronto housing market this year, it’s tempting to think that the deterioration in the Vancouver market will end in a soft landing. But Vancouver housing is more... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gets competitive; Bank ponders framework The increased depreciation tax allowance in the fall update was generally well received by businesses, but the recent slump in oil prices means that it is unlikely to prevent investment growth from... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) Headline inflation picked up in October, but slumping energy prices mean that it is likely to decline sharply from here. There were few signs of increasing core price pressures in October, and we... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Fall update fiscal projections too upbeat In his fall budget update, Finance Minister Bill Morneau more than used up the revenue windfall from stronger GDP growth and higher oil prices this year to increase incentives for business investment... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie proves resilient to slump in oil prices The slump in oil prices this week is undoubtedly bad for the economy, but we’re not convinced by reports of an imminent 6% cut in oil production. While the loonie proved resilient to the drop in oil... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in manufacturing sales capped off a strong quarter, but sales fell in volumes terms and the breakdown was hardly encouraging. While the Markit manufacturing PMI remained fairly high... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Oct.) Favourable base effects explain the pick-up in house price inflation in October. Prices only inched up on the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and we suspect that house price inflation will slow... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump won’t cause repeat of 2015 Recent declines in oil prices will not by themselves cause a repeat of the 2015 economic slump. But they are a reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates repeatedly. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Income growth past its peak While the recent data paint contrasting pictures about the pace of wages and salaries growth, there are fundamental reasons to think that it has slowed over the second half of 2018. 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Consensus too optimistic on the loonie With investors already pricing in three more rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, it’s hard to see much support for the consensus view that the Canadian dollar will rise by 5% from here. We think that... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly PMI hints at slowing momentum While the data this week revealed that GDP was better than expected in August, the growth rate nevertheless slowed. Combined with September’s trade data which showed a fall in manufacturing exports... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Int. Trade (Sep.) October’s further decline in wage growth is a worrying signal for policymakers, with real wage growth stagnating just as the Bank takes a more hawkish approach to normalising policy. 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) Although the pace of growth slipped in August, the small rise GDP was still stronger than indicated by the timelier data. That will encourage policymakers and suggests that the Bank of Canada remains... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
