Canada Economics Weekly Poloz maintains upbeat tone despite oil price slump In an interview this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz seemed fairly relaxed about the economic outlook. But with inflationary pressures fading, oil prices falling again and exporters... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy performed better than expected at the start of the fourth quarter. But with a number of factors likely to have weighed on growth in November, October’s data are little reason to think that... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) November’s sharp decline in headline inflation reflects the recent slump in energy prices. But with two of the three core inflation measures softening too, there’s even more reason for the Bank of... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The global slowdown is beginning to weigh more on the Canadian factory sector, with manufacturing sales values declining by 0.1% m/m in October. Admittedly, sales volumes increased by 0.2% m/m, but... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What ‘serious consequences’ could China mean? If the emerging diplomatic spat with China escalates further, there are a number of measures that China could use to inflict economic damage on Canada. But given that Canada’s trade exposures to China... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil price rally will soon lose steam While Canadian oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, we expect discounts against international oil benchmarks to widen again next year, which will weigh heavily on energy investment and economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Oil and housing to weigh on growth The economy is set to weather the slump in oil prices better than it did in 2015, but it will not escape unscathed. The housing market looks shaky and there are signs that higher interest rates are... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q3) Base effects caused annual house price inflation to rise again in November, but it will decline in the coming months. Meanwhile, the sharp fall in capacity utilisation in the third quarter is another... 12th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to hike, but doesn’t know when The Bank of Canada reiterated this week that it intends to raise the policy rate at least three more times, but acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the pace of those hikes. Investors appear to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The 94,000 surge in employment was nine times stronger than the consensus forecast, but the gains were led partly by Alberta where the outlook has recently deteriorated markedly. Meanwhile, the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) The unexpectedly large widening of the trade deficit in October is a sign of things to come, as continued falls in energy prices in November will have pushed export values down further. The planned... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks to its guns Despite the recent slump in oil prices, the Bank of Canada confirmed today that it intends to raise interest rates at least three more times. However, we think that a deterioration in the economy will... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update GDP growth heading toward zero in first quarter The combined effect of Alberta’s forced oil production cuts and the slump in oil prices on activity in the sector are set to push Canadian GDP growth down to around 0.5% annualised in the first... 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Revised saving rate highlights household risks The sharp downward revisions to the saving rate imply that households are even more vulnerable to higher interest rate than we had previously thought. In that environment, the Bank of Canada’s plan to... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to Bank of Canada This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2018) The economy’s third-quarter performance was weaker than the headline GDP gain of 2.0% annualised suggests. Consumer spending growth slowed sharply, while investment contracted for the second quarter... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
