Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) Although November’s fall in retail sales partly reflected lower gasoline prices, sales still fell in volume terms. Indeed, sales volumes appear to have contracted for the second quarter running last... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Nov.) November’s sharp fall in manufacturing sales partly reflected some temporary disruption, so sales probably rebounded in December. Nevertheless, echoing the weakness seen in many other countries, the... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in inflation mainly reflected a statistical quirk and will be more than reversed in January. Indeed, we expect inflation to drop below 1.5% in the coming months. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business cycle indicators point to slowdown risks With a host of indicators suggesting that GDP growth will weaken, we think that the risks of a pronounced slowdown are larger than either the Bank of Canada or the consensus assumes. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update House prices most vulnerable in Hong Kong & Canada Several of the world’s most overvalued housing markets have taken a turn for the worse, and history suggests the risks of large house price corrections are greatest where monetary conditions are... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% seasonally-adjusted rise in house prices in December masked very divergent trends between cities. Sales-to-new listing ratios suggest that this divergence will widen in the coming months... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s thinking full of holes Governor Stephen Poloz struck a positive tone following the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this week. Although officials remain optimistic, we think there are flaws in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s forecasts still too optimistic Despite slashing its economic growth forecast to below potential, the Bank of Canada reiterated today that it judges that more rate hikes will be needed to ensure that inflation remains in line with... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New home supply will weigh on house prices Given the huge amount of new supply set to reach the housing market this year, the recent deterioration in home sales is bad news for house prices. While house price weakness will be painful, the end... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The further widening of the trade deficit in November mainly reflected a sharp drop in export values due to the recent slump in oil prices. Nevertheless, non-energy export volumes also fared poorly... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Challenging landscape greets Bank of Canada Officials at the Bank of Canada face a challenging landscape when they meet next week. Not only have global markets been volatile, but the Canadian yield curve has moved closer to inversion territory... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The 9,000 increase in employment in December was better than expected and, encouragingly, suggests that November’s bumper 94,000 gain was more than just a statistical quirk. But for anyone who still... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Little reason for Bank to cheer at start of New Year With the sudden slump in oil prices over the last three months likely to weigh heavily on economic growth, and fears of a global downturn building, we expect the Bank to keep rates unchanged and... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation set to fall further Two of the Bank of Canada’s three measures of core inflation, CPI-trim and CPI-median, declined in November. As a result, an average of the three measures fell to 1.9%, the lowest in five months. Base... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q4) The slump in the Business Outlook Survey future sales balance looks consistent with GDP growth falling towards zero and is another reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
