Canada Economics Update Households vulnerable despite robust labour market Despite the strength of the labour market, the precarious condition of households’ finances suggests that consumer spending growth will continue to disappoint. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A further dovish shift from the Bank? During a speech this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz refused to commit to the possibility of further rate hikes and suggested that the neutral range was not a good target for investors to... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The Bank of Canada won’t worry too much about March’s small drop in employment following previous strong gains and will be more encouraged by the fact that wage growth rose to seven-month high... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Canada This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Canada’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Policy not as loose as Poloz thinks The Bank of Canada’s belief that the policy rate is still far below its neutral level looks doubtful. In fact, market pricing implies monetary policy is as restrictive as it was on the eve of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong January likely followed by weak February The consensus-beating jump in monthly GDP in January means that first-quarter growth will not be as weak as we previously expected. Growth will still be well below potential, though, and our forecast... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) January’s 0.3% rise in monthly GDP was far better than expected, and its broad-based nature lends support to the view that the economy’s recent soft patch was mainly due to temporary factors. But with... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The further decline in the international manufacturing surveys in recent months suggests that January’s strong export growth is unlikely to be sustained. With import volumes rising by even more than... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets right to price in rate cuts While our GDP growth forecasts are far below consensus, the narrowing and even outright inversion of parts of the yield curve in the past month suggests that investors also have little faith in the... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gambles on the housing market In his 2019 budget Finance Minister Bill Morneau revealed extra spending amounting to a modest 0.2% of GDP, which will not materially change the outlook. By introducing a policy to help first-time... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The recent decline in unit labour cost growth suggests that February’s drop in one of the Bank’s measures of core inflation is a sign of things to come. Although retail sales volumes performed a touch... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Equity loans won’t prevent construction downturn It will be at least 18 months before any meaningful boost to construction from the equity loan scheme is felt. In the meantime, the softness of new home sales means that new construction is set to... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2019 won’t drive pick-up in growth The modest increase in spending detailed in Canada’s 2019 federal budget does little to alter the economic outlook. The onus therefore remains on the Bank of Canada to support the economy. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Drop in wealth to weigh on spending growth Consumers’ housing wealth declined last year for the first time in over three decades. The modest fall is unlikely to cause a drop in consumption, but it does suggest that spending growth will remain... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2019 unlikely to drive pick-up in growth In the 2019 Budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau is likely to announce some headline-grabbing policies to please voters ahead of October’s federal election. We doubt that they will amount to much in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
