Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) March’s rise in export volumes only partially reversed February’s slump, but exports probably rose again in April. After being a big drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was only 1.0%... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stronger in March, but housing still an issue Following February’s only modest decline in GDP, the economy is on track to do better than the Bank of Canada expected in the first half of the year. But the most recent housing data and this week’s... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to rebound in Q2, before dropping back An unwinding of the temporary factors that weighed on activity in January and February means that GDP growth will rebound from 1% annualised in the first quarter to about 2.2% in the second. That... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m decline in monthly real GDP in February was principally due to the unseasonably severe weather this winter and the associated disruption to rail transportation, which had a knock-on... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives up on future rate hikes By dropping any reference to future rate hikes today, the Bank delivered its most dovish policy signal in two years. While the Bank remains optimistic about economic prospects in the second half of... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals for the Bank A slew of data releases this week presented mixed signals for the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Although core inflation has picked up and the economy probably performed a bit... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales was a pleasant surprise given the unusually severe winter weather that month. Although consumer confidence has rebounded a touch so far this year, it is still... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Policy on hold, but rate cuts coming The weakness of the recent business surveys suggests that the Bank of Canada will strike a dovish tone at its meeting next week. The Bank is unlikely to start talking about interest rate cuts just yet... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & International Trade (Feb.) Recent declines in capacity constraints and inflation expectations suggest that March’s pick-up in core inflation is likely to be reversed before long. Meanwhile, the slump in export volumes in... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February’s drop in manufacturing sales volumes adds to the signs that the economy had a poor month. While part of the weakness may reflect temporary factors, such as unseasonably severe winter weather... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that GDP growth will remain weak while core inflation could fall sharply. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada’s next move will be to cut interest... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound to have only muted benefit The recent rebound in oil prices would normally be great news for the Canadian economy. But with regulatory concerns and capacity constraints likely to hold back investment in the energy sector and... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) The Teranet House Price Index showed a second consecutive monthly fall in house prices in March. The recent weakness of home sales and the increase in new home supply this year suggests that house... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Full effects of housing downturn yet to be felt The continued weakness of home sales suggests that March’s rebound in housing starts is unlikely to be sustained, while the subdued pace of house price inflation points to spending growth remaining... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
