DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) April’s trade data point to net trade making a very large positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter, following the large negative contribution in the first quarter. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to drop back after second quarter rebound Although the Bank of Canada’s expectations for first-quarter GDP growth were more accurate than our own, we still think the Bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound in growth this quarter... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter pick-up in GDP growth won’t last While the Bank of Canada presented a fairly balanced policy statement alongside its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% this week, in the speech that followed a day later Senior Deputy... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2019) The first-quarter weakness in GDP growth won’t convince the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, since the Bank knew that temporary disruptions would weigh on the economy. Nevertheless, if we are... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank to cut interest rates this year The Bank of Canada today argued that the recent economic slowdown has been largely due to temporary factors, but that growing global trade tensions mean that “the degree of accommodation being... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain cautious The slump in the US activity surveys in May and the big drop in oil prices this week add to the reasons to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain a cautious tone at its meeting next week. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Employment gains set to slow The one bright spot over the past six months has been the strength of the labour market. The Labour Force Survey revealed a record-breaking 107,000 jump in employment in April. Even the more reliable... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain cautious despite stronger run of data The economy is performing better than the Bank of Canada previously expected, but the outlook remains challenging. We expect the Bank to keep policy unchanged next week and anticipate another fairly... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales growth was flattered in March by higher gasoline prices and the unwinding of temporary factors that had weighed on sales in February. We expect overall consumer spending growth to lag... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shows signs of life The housing market showed some promising signs of life in April, with home sales rising strongly. House price inflation slowed, however, and is likely to remain very low. 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Labour market’s strong performance will soon end Trade uncertainty and increased competition in the food delivery service sector help to explain the unusual strength of employment growth. Surveys now suggest that jobs growth will slow and, even with... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) Following transport-related disruption in February, manufacturing sales more than made up for that earlier weakness with a 2.1% m/m rise in March. Given the subdued tone of the business surveys... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s modest rise in headline inflation to 2.0%, from 1.9%, was partly due to temporary factors so we expect inflation to edge back down in May. While base effects from last year mean that core... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Data point to stronger GDP growth in Q2 The data this week confirmed that the economy is on track for a stronger second quarter than the Bank of Canada is expecting. While exports performed well in March, growing trade tensions with China... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) April’s 107,000 rise in employment blew the consensus out of the water and will encourage policymakers. But the increase was less impressive than it first seemed, with over half of the gain coming... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
