GDP by Industry (Jul.)

The economy’s stagnation in July was partly due to temporary disruptions in the volatile oil and gas sector, which should be reversed in August. Nevertheless, we think that third-quarter growth slowed...

1st October 2019 · 2 mins read

Wholesalers save July

The data this week revealed a strong rise in wholesale sales volumes and a surge in the SEPH measure of employment in July. Those positive surprises suggest that GDP was flat in July, in contrast to...

27th September 2019 · 6 mins read

Wealth effects more important than HELOCs alone

The Bank of Canada’s latest research implies that home equity extraction has had only modest effects on consumer spending and GDP. Once we consider the total wealth effects, however, the significance...

26th September 2019 · 3 mins read

Consumption growth will lag income gains

Households appear to be taking advantage of recent strong income gains to strengthen their finances. Over the past year, real incomes increased by 3.0% but real consumption increased by just 1.4%....

24th September 2019 · 8 mins read

GDP probably fell in July

After growing at an average pace of 0.3% m/m from March to June, the latest data suggest that GDP contracted in July.

20th September 2019 · 3 mins read

Canada Data Response

Retail Sales (July)

Retail sales values increased by 0.4% m/m in July, but were unchanged in volumes terms, which supports our view that, after a brief surge in the second quarter, third-quarter GDP growth will drop back...

20th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Teranet House Prices (Aug.)

House price inflation picked up for the first time in nine months in August and the improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio this year suggests that it will rise further.

19th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Consumer Prices (Aug.)

After edging down to 1.9% in August, headline inflation looks set to decline by another couple of percentage points in the next few months. Admittedly, base effects will push inflation back towards 2%...

18th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Manufacturing Sales (Jul.)

July’s fall in manufacturing sales volumes implies that GDP in the sector declined for the second month running. As Markit’s manufacturing PMI dropped below 50 again in August, the sector looks set to...

17th September 2019 · 2 mins read

It’s not the economy, stupid

While we already knew that an election was coming, this week Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it official and the vote is set for 21st October. Although the global political landscape has been...

13th September 2019 · 7 mins read

Bank ignores rate cut speculation

This week the Bank of Canada gave us few hints about the future path of monetary policy. Given further signs that the global economy is loosening momentum, we continue to think that the direction of...

6th September 2019 · 4 mins read

Labour Force Survey (Aug.)

August’s broad-based 81,000 jump in employment shows that the economy continues to shrug off global headwinds. But with the employment surveys weakening in recent months, we are doubtful that this...

6th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Bank leaves its options open

The Bank of Canada has become more concerned about deteriorating global conditions and, given our view that global growth will slow further, we continue to expect the Bank to cut interest rates in...

4th September 2019 · 3 mins read

International Merchandise Trade (Jul.)

July’s trade data show that non-energy exports are holding up better than the business surveys might suggest, while the weakness in key import components suggests domestic demand growth remains weak.

4th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Spotlight turns to the Bank

After a week of mixed data, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight. We expect the Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged and present a more dovish statement than in July.

30th August 2019 · 6 mins read