International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November’s sharp falls in export and import volumes point to another weak month for activity and suggest that GDP stagnated in the fourth quarter. But given that the trade weakness in November was... 7th January 2020 · 2 mins read
New year, new loonie The loonie has started 2020 in strong form and we’re more optimistic than most about the currency’s prospects for the next two years. In the short term, however, a further deterioration in the data... 3rd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Unemployment rate to tick up in 2020 November’s 71,000 slump in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of employment almost certainly overstates the weakness of the labour market. While we do not yet have the November data for the more... 23rd December 2019 · 9 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The 0.1% m/m decline in October’s monthly GDP was partly due to disruption in the motor vehicle sector caused by the GM strike south of the border, but retail and wholesale GDP also contracted. 23rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Growth to rebound in the first quarter The data this week suggest that GDP declined in October and we suspect it fell in November as well. Those falls mean that GDP probably stagnated in the fourth quarter. But the weakness was partly due... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s sharp decline in retail sales suggests that GDP fell at the start of the fourth quarter. While that raises the possibility of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates in the new year, we... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update CAD & NOK set to outperform in 2020 Despite a rise in oil prices over the past couple of months, the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone have underperformed most other G10 currencies. Nonetheless, we expect both to fare better next... 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Strong 2021 to put rate hikes back on the table The worst for GDP growth is not quite behind us but the economy’s prospects look better than they did a few months ago. Measures to boost existing oil pipeline capacity will help to offset still weak... 17th December 2019 · 20 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The 0.7% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in October was entirely due to a further decline in motor vehicle sales, which reflects the impact of the strike by GM workers south of the border. As a... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Poloz welcomes reduced uncertainty Governor Stephen Poloz didn’t provide any clear hints about the direction of policy in his speech this week, but the news that the updated NAFTA will be signed into law in the first half of 2020, as... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Third-quarter investment surge unlikely to be repeated As business credit growth slowed further in October and business confidence fell to an eight-month low in November, the jump investment in the third quarter does not seem to be a sign of things to... 11th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Core inflation probably peaked in November Our calculations suggest that an average of the Bank of Canada’s three core inflation measures edged up to a fresh 10-year high in November. But given GDP growth has been below potential for much of... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Banking on fiscal policy There were further signs this week that the Bank of Canada has little intention of cutting interest rates. While November’s disappointing Labour Force Survey may make policymakers question their... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November’s slump in employment confirms that slowing GDP growth is spreading to the labour market. But with temporary factors exacerbating the fall, we don’t think it will concern policymakers too... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) Following the modest rise in October, exports almost certainly slumped in November due to the disruption to the Keystone pipeline as well as the CN Rail strike. That will cause a further slowdown in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
