Home sales plummet

Home sales were down by 69% y/y in the Greater Toronto Area in the first half of April and the sales-to-new listing ratio now points to falling house prices.

24th April 2020 · 4 mins read

Bank of Canada’s balance sheet to expand further

The asset purchase programs announced by the Bank of Canada in the past few weeks mean its balance sheet is set to expand much further. The Bank’s assets have already risen by $200bn since mid-March...

23rd April 2020 · 10 mins read

Consumer Prices (Mar.)

The 1.3%-point slump in inflation in March was mainly due to lower energy prices and, with gasoline inflation falling even further this month, we expect headline inflation to drop below zero in April.

22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read

Oil sector woes will hold back the recovery

Whether negative or not, oil prices are now far below operating breakeven costs for many oil sands projects. That means firms are slashing production, and we doubt this lost output will be quick to...

21st April 2020 · 3 mins read

Retail Sales (Feb.)

Retail sales edged up by 0.3% m/m in February, but we estimate that sales slumped by 10% m/m in March and expect an even larger decline in April.

21st April 2020 · 2 mins read

Teranet House Prices (Mar.)

House price inflation accelerated to a 22-month high in March but, given the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak, prices are set to fall in the coming months.

20th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Policymakers provide further support

Policymakers further increased the monetary and fiscal support this week but, with the earliest data suggesting that the coronavirus outbreak has hit the economy faster and deeper than we initially...

17th April 2020 · 6 mins read

Hit to GDP and employment worse than we thought

GDP and employment are set to fall by more than we previously expected in the first half of the year. Even allowing for a stronger rebound in the second half, we now forecast an 8% drop in GDP for...

16th April 2020 · 4 mins read

Manufacturing Sales (Feb.)

Manufacturing sales unexpectedly rose in February but, as many manufacturers stopped or reduced production last month, they are set to fall sharply in March and April.

16th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Bank starts corporate and provincial bond purchases

We suspect that the Bank of Canada will soon have to expand its newly announced corporate bond purchases, given that under current plans they would amount to just 0.4% of corporate debt outstanding.

15th April 2020 · 3 mins read

Confidence slumps amid record job losses

Surveys of business and consumer confidence have plunged to record lows, while the Labour Force Survey revealed a record one million slump in employment in March. As almost four million people have...

9th April 2020 · 5 mins read

Labour Force Survey (Mar.)

The labour market was weaker in March than even the 1.0 million plunge in employment suggests, with a further 1.3 million people counted as employed but not working any hours. We think that employment...

9th April 2020 · 3 mins read

Next big announcement could be Poloz’s successor

The Bank of Canada could announce next week that it is adding corporate bonds to its asset purchases but, if there are only tweaks to the existing programs, then the focus will be on the Bank’s new...

8th April 2020 · 7 mins read

Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1)

The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys do not yet reflect the sudden deterioration in economic activity. Timelier surveys show that business and consumer confidence has plummeted.

6th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Fiscal support already too late for many

The federal and provincial governments have now announced fiscal packages worth a total of 13% of GDP. The speed and magnitude of the response is encouraging, but there are signs the government is...

3rd April 2020 · 6 mins read