Employment outperformance set to end The stronger employment recovery in Canada than the US seems to reflect several factors including wage subsidies, less immediate pressure on the finances of regional governments, and the faster re... 14th October 2020 · 4 mins read
A house, a house, my condo for a house! The local real estate data suggest homeowners are increasingly trying to offload condo apartments in favour of single-family houses. As those types of home are in short supply, overall sales are set... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
New restrictions to slow, but not derail, the recovery Quebec went further with its restrictions than we expected this week, by completely closing restaurants and bars in its two largest metropolitan areas for the next month. Nevertheless, even if other... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
GDP by Industry (Jul.) The 3.0% m/m rise in GDP in July and the likely 1.0% increase in August put the economy on track for a 45% annualised expansion in the third quarter. Renewed restrictions are set to weigh on growth in... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Home prices to head higher despite areas of weakness Despite weakness in some urban apartment markets, which is set to weigh on home price inflation in Toronto and Vancouver, we see scope for the national average home price to rise by 12% by end-2022. 28th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Whatever it costs Amid surging cases of COVID-19, the government used its throne speech to signal a raft of policy measures to come. If implemented soon, these should help to cushion the blow from the second wave of... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Throne speech latest step toward more activist policy While the government still needs to gain support for its throne speech and then back it up with budgetary action, the array of policy proposals confirms it is ready to take a far more activist... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
All eyes on the throne speech Recent calls for the government to commit to a new “fiscal anchor” means next week’s throne speech might be a bit less exciting than we first thought, but it still seems likely that the government... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Rally in soybean prices may be overdone Strong demand from China will put a floor under corn and soybean consumption in 2020/21. But with record expected yields in the US, we expect corn and soybean prices to come off the boil. 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Second wave unlikely to derail the recovery There are several reasons why a second wave of the coronavirus should be far less disruptive for the economy than the first, and we think that GDP will continue to grind higher even if cases pick up... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Consumer Prices (Aug.) Although headline inflation remained close to zero in August, that weakness was mainly due to sharp falls in the prices of a few items. Underlying core inflation is edging back up, as firms begin to... 16th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) A strong increase in auto production helped drive a 7.0% m/m rise in manufacturing sales in July, but the weakness in some other sectors supports our view that the overall manufacturing recovery will... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Macklem hints at shift in focus toward inequality Following the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25% this week, Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech on Thursday was another sign that the Bank is heading toward including some... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Bank sticks to its cautious message The Bank of Canada repeated today that, despite the booming housing market and signs that core inflation could soon be back at 2%, it has no plans to raise interest rates for years. 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Initial recovery was robust, but may now be slowing This week brought more news that the Canadian economy rebounded strongly as the lockdowns were eased over the summer. But the slowdown in employment growth in August is an early warning that the pace... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The 245,800 increase in employment in August means that nearly 2 million of the 3 million jobs lost during the pandemic lockdowns have now been recouped but, with the pace of the recovery now slowing... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
