Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Employment growth slowed sharply in October, but the 84,000 gain was still impressive given that the renewed coronavirus-related restrictions caused employment to fall in some sectors. Moreover, the... 6th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Easing of restrictions may not last The imminent easing of restrictions in Ontario is another reason to think that GDP will keep rising in the fourth quarter, but there is clearly a significant chance that restrictions will be reimposed... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Exports and imports both rose at a similar pace in September and we expect them to continue to edge up over the rest of the year, despite the recent reimposition of domestic restrictions and in key... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Onus remains on fiscal policy Developments this week suggest it will take a much greater deterioration of the outlook for the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary support, leaving the onus on Finance Minister Chrystia... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 1.2% m/m rise in GDP in August and the preliminary estimate of a 0.7% gain in September confirm that the initial recovery has been stronger than first anticipated. The latest restrictions will... 30th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank alters QE and beefs up forward guidance While the Bank of Canada today trimmed the pace of its QE purchases, we agree with its claim that the program should be as stimulative as before providing those purchases are focused on longer-term... 28th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update US election effects to be outweighed by other factors A Democratic clean sweep in the US election is probably the scenario that would be most beneficial for Canada’s GDP, but the effects would still be far outweighed by other factors. 27th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions weighing on the recovery The restrictions reimposed in Ontario and Quebec this month have weighed heavily on restaurant visits, but we think overall GDP will continue to recover so long as more draconian lockdowns are avoided... 26th October 2020 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to the Bank There was plenty of data this week for the Bank of Canada to digest ahead of its meeting, yet none of this will have much bearing on the key question of how the second wave of COVID-19 will play out. 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Renewed restrictions add to downside risks The economy has recovered faster than the Bank of Canada expected, but downside risks from the second wave of COVID-19 are mounting. We expect the Bank to reiterate next week that there is little... 21st October 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s balance sheet to expand again soon The Bank of Canada’s balance sheet has been shrinking in recent weeks, as demand for its emergency repos loans continues to subside, and it will experience a bigger fall next spring, when the 12-month... 20th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Business & Consumer Outlook Surveys (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter business and consumer surveys show improvements, but still imply the recovery will be slow and were conducted before the latest restrictions were imposed. 19th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities We expect Canadian dollar appreciation to persist We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a... 19th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Record low inventory to weigh on home sales The main news this week was that home sales hit a record high in September. As inventory is at a record low, sales are set to moderate from here, but prices should keep rising. 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The 2.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in August was caused by a drop in auto sales back to more normal levels, and the strong rise in rail freight volumes in September bodes better for sales... 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
